"Data and Stats Aren't Everything"

Mulan

This post will be divided into two points, each is interesting enough in my eyes to talk about, but neither warrants its own post.

While writing and breaking down the numbers for my series about Pep Guardiola there was a similar point brought over and over again. It is phrased differently between one comment to another but the point remains that data and stats aren't everything. Which, no one said they are but each part deserves its own mini-dive.

Data

Data has such an unspecified function in everyone's eyes. For many people, they think of it the same way they do stats, which in a way it is basically the same. However, the difference comes with the versatility behind each one given.

In my Pep Guardiola X Data post I tried to display how Manchester City should have been ahead based on different data, including Expected Goals. The response to that was that Expected Goals don't mean much because Data isn't everything.

However, in the end, using data, it was determined what Manchester City's problem was; wasting scoring opportunities. Seems like an obvious answer but the more data studied the closer we got to the answer that Manchester City wastes the most amount of chances while they are behind, less so when it is a draw, and even less while winning.

That's how the final conclusion was there was a problem with the team's mentality while losing. With more digging, we found that problems existed with Pep even before his time at Manchester City, although less severe than Barcelona and Bayern had stars to stop Pep when he's gone too far which didn't exist at City as City's owner, sporting management were fully behind Pep and no City player had more star power than Pep.

All of that was answered using data. And that's the final point here as data no longer means just one thing. It's a collective of things that if you know how to put them all together without only using them to prove a point you already have could lead to you knowing the answer 99% of the time.

That's the way Liverpool knew to sign Jurgen Klopp, by the way. He was struggling with Dortmund, even battling relegation. However, Liverpool's sporting director team was an analyst team that determined that Dortmund were only scoring less and the playstyle itself was better than ever as they were producing more scoring chances than before.

Stats

This is a funny one as it is a counter-argument more directed at those one-track mind football fanboys than it is anyone actually thinking for more than 5 seconds. Sadly, the first group is the majority judging only by one stat, two at best, most of the time goals and assists. Passing accuracy mattered for a while during Xavi and Iniesta's era but it seems to have died down.

However, that mentality is where this segment serves as more of a companion piece to Why No One Wants Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo stated more than once that he chases goal stats as those are what matter the most. Especially when chasing individual titles such as Ballon d'Or.

This is a funny part as I will attempt to prove that Cristiano Ronaldo himself fails by his own standards.

Let's look at the four Champions League titles Cristiano Ronaldo won with Real Madrid. He's always been praised as Mr. Champions League and some even say that Real Madrid wouldn't have won the Champions League without him, which is a different conversation in itself.

However, Real Madrid wouldn't have won any of the Champions League they won during Cristiano Ronaldo's time with the club without many more players. I could make the argument that using Cristiano Ronaldo and his fans' own criteria prove that Cristiano Ronaldo wasn't the most important player during most of those Champions League titles wins. Even his last one with Manchester United.

2007-2008 with Manchester United

Cristino didn't score in the semi-final against Barcelona and Chelsea in the final. Not only that, he actually missed a penalty against Barcelona and also missed one in the penalty shoot-out against Chelsea. He scored one goal against Chelsea but Cristiano Ronaldo failed two out of the three most important chances he got to shine in the semi-final and final.

It's a bit iffy, but I think we could all agree that when Manchester won against Barcelona and Chelsea didn't have Cristiano as the man who brought the glory to the club. At best he was the third best.

2013-2014 with Real Madrid

This is a weird one as Cristiano Ronaldo ended this version with 15 goals overall and 8 during the knockout stage. Not a single goal of those 8 goals changed the outcome of the matches besides the third goal he scored in the 1st leg against Dortmund as Dortmund only scored 2 goals in the 2nd leg match.

In the knockout stages, he scored the third and sixth goal against Schalke in the first leg, then scored the second and third against an already dying team. The third and fourth goals in the second leg against Bayern Munich, Real Madrid already won the first leg and already scored 2 goals in the second before Cristiano Ronaldo showed up.

Finally, the fourth goal against Atletico Madrid in the final in a 4-1 win from a penalty in the 120th minute.

2015-2016 with Real Madrid

Cristiano only scored against Malmo, Shakhtar, and Wolfsburg. Real Madrid played and won against Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, and Atletico Madrid without Cristiano. All that Cristiano did in the last three matches is score a penalty.

It should be noted that his goals against Wolfsburg were a hattrick in the second leg after Wolfsburg won the first leg match 2-0. I will count it, although it's Wolfburg.

2016-2017 with Real Madrid

That's where I shut up as it is literally the best performance a player had in the tournament's history scoring-wise, so Cristiano Ronaldo is right when it comes to this one in specific.

2017-2018 with Real Madrid

Cristiano Ronaldo also didn't score in the final and most important three matches in the tournament as far as the winner is concerned.

So, by Ronaldo's standards, should these goals grant him the individual titles he had. Please note I said by Ronaldo's standards.

What Do We Make Of Those Stats?

Well, nothing. And that's the point. Although well-researched, it is a silly response to a silly claim that goals matter the most or that the names of the teams scored against matter without the context of the games. That's where data comes into play as it provides context the more you look into it.

That's what data is, it is facts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis. People are treating both as the same thing.

In Conclusion

The statement is wrong from its inception as it puts both as equal or belonging to the same side of the scale. Stats are how Juventus determined they should sign Cristiano Ronaldo to win the Champions League, it is also how Cristiano Ronaldo decided he was the best. However, data is the reason no club competing for the Champions League title is trying to sign him.

Football as a game makes much more sense now that data is incorporated more into decisions. The human factor will always exist but with data, you can estimate how much it would affect your game and how often.

Football is evolving, clubs are getting ahead thanks to data and those lazy enough to not pursue a real answer and throw it to data not being everything are already falling behind,



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11 comments
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You're absolutely right about it! Stats isn't all. But at the same moment, in football as a game it works. What do I mean by that? Well, Liverpool's has a throw in coach. Did you know that? By using what he taught to the player the scored a goal against FC Barcelona in the 4-0 comeback! And let's no talk about the corner kick throw... As you can see, it's a tool, a weapon for strategy but again, you're right; is not everything. Football is way to mysterious and complicated than that! Good post, mate! I really like. Later I will post something related to Jorge Valdano's career and influence at Real Madrid and argentinian National Team.

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It's an interesting analysis but in my personal opinion I would say that anyone who doubts having Ronaldo in their squad wouldn't know what they want. Regards.

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That's a very odd conclusion to make from reading the post, assuming you did.

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I agree with you! Stats aren't everything but these things are the ones that will stay for ever. These are the things that can not be disputed and are balck on white. And in 50 years nobody will remember hwo something happend but they will only look at the stats. Unfortunately that is how people are viewing the sports niche :/

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Forgot to ask, are you going to write anything about women's football?

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I am literally done writing a short series about it.

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Got a link for me? Or not published yet?

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I usually write these as one piece (this one was like 8K in length) so I am in the process of cutting and dividing to make a series plus like 10 more things.

TL;DR the first part will be out within a few hours.

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