NBA TopShot Season 3 Is Coming

The age of computers has given rise to unconventional assets like cryptocurrency and NFTs. I might tackle this topic at a later time, but for now my focus is to write my first article about NBA Topshot and share some of my thoughts on this popular NFT project.

What is TopShot

Given that this is my first time writing about NBA topshot. I think a short introduction is in order. I will not go deep into detail here as again, my focus is to give my insights on the upcoming season 3 packs.
That said simply put, NBA topshot is a project built specifically for trading NFTs called moments. These moments are videos licensed by the NBA that can be sold and traded in the marketplace. Think of it like NBA cards but only this time its purely digital.

Evaluation

Season 2 of NBA topshot has just concluded from a month ago. Which means there will be no more additional moments that will be minted for this series. Each series follows the actual season of the NBA, from beginning until playoffs and then championship.
In less than a month season 3 will start and moments for the 2021-2022 NBA season will then be minted and then sold out in packs.
Naturally, because of it's limited count season 2 has experienced an increase in floor price from $3 to 4$. (season 1 is also expcted to move up in value)

Analysis

NBA Topshot is still at its infancy, not to mention it is still in its beta stage. But already has hundreds of thousands of users. It won't be long before the 1 million users will be breached. The NBA has 59 million followers on instagram.

As seasons pass, and as the topshot community continues to grow, its only natural for prices of the previous seasons to go up and up in value as more moments are kept for personal collection and is taken out of the marketplace.

As i've already mentioned, just a month or 2 ago,there are thousands of $3 moments available on the marketplace. as soon as the season ended that value went up by one dollar, it is almost impossible to get your hands on a three dollar moment

Forecast

Now the question is how much would be the floor price of nba topshot moments for season 2 once season 3 has come out?

The basis of my assumption is the collector score given by each moment. It is important to note that season 3 moments will only have 2 points of collector score, compared to 12 collector score of the previous season. AND provided that each common pack would still contain 3 moments and still at $9: I am looking at three price points, specific for certain scenarios. see below:

• $6 Floor Price - the minimum amount that a moment could be sold for in the marketplace is $1, so simply put, 6 pcs. season 3 moments would be equivalent to 1 pc. season 2 moment in terms of collector score.

• $4 Floor Price - this can happen because of the trade tickets. trading in 4 pieces of season 3 moments can give you a locker pack which will contain 3 pieces of season 2 moments. If someone is after increasing their own collector score, this is likely the action that they would take. They would purchase 4pcs s3 moments, trade it in for a season 2 pack and get a higher collector score. This is what i would consider as the lowest price season 2 moments could go for.

• $18 Floor Price - now this is something i would personally love to happen. This will materialize in the event that the community would still follow what was done before and sell season 3 moments at a floor price of $3. If there are no more locker room packs to be given out, and if packs are still sold at $9 for a 3pc common moment. Then there is a chance for this to actually happen.

Strategy

This is my personal strategy so please don't take this as financial advise. do your own research and learn to assess your risk apetite.

• My strategy is simple, as i am what you could call a swing trader slash collector hybrid. I am both a collector and trader at the same time.
• At this stage, i will buy 1 season 2 moment daily, while the floor remains at $4. I will not look into spending more than $5 per moment.
• I am having fun building up my collector score and personal collection, i got into topshot only as an extra means of income and i am not in the business of making a quick proft.

I will be making more articles and updates about NBA topshot, if you are interested in this topics, as well as splinterlands and art. feel free to follow me. If you have more questions about nba topshot don't hesitate in asking me anything by leaving a comment. i will try my best to answer your queries to the best of my ability.