dublup.io | Initial User Experience Review
Prediction Markets
There are a ton of 'Prediction Market' platforms in crypto and I'm probably not even aware of all of them. These are some that are on my radar
- Augur
- Gnosis
- Omen
- Stox
- polymarket.com
- predix.network
- realitycards
- catnip1.netlify.app
- polkamarkets
- dublup.io
Vitalik Butering has been very vocal about being bullish on Predicton Markets (Read Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election. I, as a sports bettor, have honestly never seen much appeal in them so far as most of them are a complete mess, hard to actually use, extremely high fees, bad odds, no volume or liquidity, and overly complicated with often pointless things to predict centered around crypto.
Dublup.io
dublup.io is actually the first prediction market I gave a fair try given the fact that they run on the Hive Blockchain (which has excellent tech and just works properly for everyday users) and are trying to give the PAL token a proper use-case. It was released 3 weeks ago (See Announcing DublUp.io! The Prediction Market Platform You've Been Waiting For)
The main concept is that anyone can start a market (which costs a 100 PAL maker fee) where everyone who wants can pick a side on buying shares until a certain date. After that, shares can be traded until the expiration date. Those who have 10000 PAL staked can act as oracles receiving 4% of the total volume with the one making the market receiving 1% of the total value. 95% of the Hive on all sides combined get paid out to the winning shares.
From my experience, everything works properly as it is intended to work but there is a major flaw in the entire model witch just makes it completely useless for a Sports Bettor Like me...
Platform-Breaking Flaw
When you buy shares you basically have no idea what your odds will be which makes the prediction itself not so much a prediction on the event but a prediction on how many people will pick what side. Events during the period between when a market is created and when it closes also can have a major influence on the price. So unless you buy shares at the exact second before the market closes (assuming nobody else tries to do the same), you have no clue if some whale comes in crushing your odds or if some news will come leaving you with dead money or crushed odds compared to the time you took your bet.
Making proper predictions trying to earn from it outsmarting the market is all about knowing the odds you will get based on the information you have at the time you place your bet. Right now, the only way to do so on dublup.io is in the secondary market when no more extra shares can enter the pool. Since that secondary market is built upon the initial market which is broken, it will be hard to get there.
All of this of course unless I am completely wrong about it all. (Please convince me in the comments if that is the case!)
So as much as I like the fact that something as a prediction market is being built on Hive with a really well-chosen name and branding giving PAL a use case, right now it feels more like a gimmick that is fun to use as a toy to have some fun with at times. I'm sure there are things that can be done to overcome this major flaw and I look forward to the day it will be done so I can possibly use the platform to make predictions on events knowing the actual odds I'm betting at in advance regardless of where more money comes in.
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Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
No, I think you're right. That's the impression I get too after reading the FAQ. What a weird way to do betting markets.
I guess it's crypto being crypto, there are just so many projects for the sake of having a token with so few of them solving an actual problem improving on what already exists. So far in crypto betting, I have yet to come across something that can even remotely rival the betting broker I have been using for years. Plenty of options around for casual players to gamble without the need for KYC or the risk to get limited, but as far as a solution goes to lower the margins making it less difficult to win, nobody is really getting close yet.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
One of the key differences between a prediction market and a traditional betting platform or sportsbook is that there is no "house." The odds are determined by the users and we're doing our best to make odds as transparent as possible, but there is always the chance that ,as you say, some last moment whale could swoop in and swing the odds.
Proper market creation can significantly limit this issue, which most of the newer markets have been made stronger than the few initial markets and help avoid this. Making sure that the market closes with a significant length of time before the outcome of the event can be known is key to prevent the behavior that you are speaking about, so it's up to the market creator to make a strong market and the oracles to invalidate markets that don't seem fair or to be working as intended. When a market is invalidate everything returns to the users and the only expense incurred by anyone is the market creator's burned PAL, which encourages them to make better markets.
You've provided some great feedback here and we're continuing to develop the site to try to make odds easier to read and educate market makers and oracles on creating fair and interesting markets. As the userbase grows and volume increases the odds should be much less volatile. Thanks for checking out the site!