PROBABILIDADES / PROBABILITIES

Probability is the term used to determine that something is possible through an action, how would this be? is the real chance that something has to come to fruition, in baseball terms, is what is closest to a mark, is the closest thing a team or a player has to achieve something, all seasons in this sport are full of probabilities, and these, are achieved through studies to know how close a player is to a record based on real data of the player and a series of antecedents that make them put in the radal of how likely to achieve, that is why below I will talk about 3 players that according to their numbers are the closest to beat the famous mark for a major league player as it is the 40-40.

RONALD ACUÑA JR.

Talking about this record is a bit unusual, because it has only happened 4 times in the history of this game, when we touch this topic today the first name that comes to mind is the Venezuelan Ronald Acuña Jr. outfielder of the Atlanta Braves, the native of La Sabana has everything to beat this mark, for various reasons in the past only a few steps have separated him to reach it and this season with the implementation of the new rules seems to be the perfect scenario to finally reach a record that goes totally according to him, steal 40 bases and connect 40 homers in a single season.

He is called to have the 5 tools in baseball for his explosiveness in his game, and thanks to that aspect it is easier for him to get one of the 2 things that would lead him to consummate this record such as stolen bases, with a good pace is already the leader in the National League with 11, a very important number for only 3 weeks of the championship, only remaining to adjust what he does from the plate, when he must know how to combine what he does for his team and a personal record that can take him out of concentration for what he was originally hired for, which is to produce runs collectively, if we take into account his temperament.

JULIO RODRÍGUEZ

This player has very similar characteristics to Ronald Acuña Jr. but he still needs to mature, in only his second year in the majors Julio still has to improve some aspects of his game to combine and enter the race for this award, the Dominican Republic is very fast on the bases and for him it does not seem to be a problem to steal bases, the point is that he is an extremely vulnerable hitter and to be able to consummate that number of complete game at-bats he must test his contact and power without neglecting his role as first baseman in the lineup.

Lo hecho la temporada pasada por Julio, en donde logró maravillar con sus números individuales igualando marcas que solo son comparadas con las de la leyenda de este equipo de los Marineros de Seattle como lo es Kend Griffey Jr., nos dan un indicativo que en algún momento lo hará, actualmente está en los primeros lugares entre los mejores en la Liga Americana en robo de bases y anotadas, quedando como gran trabajo el reglón de cuadrangulares en donde sólo acumula 4, muy temprano estamos en la temporada pero tomando en cuenta su habilidad y potencia es un candidato a lograr el 40-40.

What Julio did last season, where he was able to amaze with his individual numbers, equaling records that are only compared to those of the legend of this team of the Seattle Mariners such as Kend Griffey Jr., give us an indication that at some point he will do it, he is currently in the first places among the best in the American League in stolen bases and scored, remaining as a great job the home run rule where he only accumulated 4, we are very early in the season but taking into account its ability and power is a candidate to achieve the 40-40.

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KYLE TUCKER

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When we see this player what we least think is that he is a base stealer, but if we go to the past, when 3 of the 4 players who have managed to record a 40-40 were heavy, and we can see that it is not so far-fetched that Kyle Tucker is also a serious candidate to achieve this mark, with proven power and 30+ homer seasons in a row, knocking it out of the park is not a problem for him at all, making it easier for him, since being a home run guy, focusing his sights on stolen bases will be easier.

Why do I tell you this? Let's do an exercise, Tucker is not a first bat, neither second, he is almost always 5th or 6th in the Houston Astros batting order, his only responsibility is to bring runs to the plate and he does it in a very fluid way, stealing pads will be something that although it is not his forte, it makes his concentration more detailed in reaching bases, and more if we see his numbers where he has a lifetime effectiveness of 87%, this being equal to that he has reached the bases safely in 57 of 65 attempts, this season he is 4-4 and is the most effective among those of his build, proving once again that he is smart and aggressive while running the bases, will he make it. ? I think so, don't underestimate him, ''dawn and we'll see''.

HASTA LA PRÓXIMA / SEE YOU NEXT TIME