My Prediction Was Right - New Year, New Setup

It's only March, there have been only a couple of tournaments but the change is obvious. This is good though as there's nothing more boring than watching the same thing over and over. This happens a lot in F1 where sometimes nothing spectacular happens, the arriving order is the same as the start.

Roger Federer

This year we have Roger Federer, the 20-time grand slam champion who had two knee surgeries last year, skipped Australian Open this year, and got back in the game as he played against Dan Evans at the Qatar Open on Wednesday. I've been looking forward to seeing him play and change the results but chances are I won't see him playing. He was defeated by Georgia's Nikoloz Basilashvili in quarterfinals on Thursday and he withdrew from the competition, saying he wants to focus on practice.

We all knew it won't be easy, a comeback at his age after two knee surgery must be really hard. At this point I'm going to trust him and not question his decision. I really hope he's well and just need more practice. He wants to play Wimbledon and he needs it as on Monday, Novak Djokovic broke Federer's all-time record for most weeks spent as the men's world No.1. This was inevitable, the Serbian is unstoppable and has now surpassed Federer's tally of 310.

source

Daniil Medvedev

The other surprise of the week is Medvedev, who has just become No. 2 in the ATP rankings, pushing Rafael Nadal down one place.

source

For good measure, Medvedev celebrated the milestone one day earlier by winning his 10th title at the Open 13 Provence in Marseille. “I am really happy," he said. “I knew that I would become No. 2... [but] it is always better when you step up the rankings when you do something great... it is great for the self-esteem that just before becoming No. 2 on Monday, I win a tournament.” source

Those of you who have seen Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev playing lately knew this is going to happen sooner or later, but rather sooner than later. There's roughly 10 years age difference between the two, in favor of Medvedev and that is not the only factor influencing results. Nadal seemed in trouble in Melbourne. He wasn't injured but could not keep up with the level of tennis played in Australia.

What's Next?

The difference in ATP points between Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal is not considerable, anything can happen this year ans there's plenty of time. If I look at the performance of the two, I have to say I'd bet on Medvedev keeping his position as No. 2. Nadal seems to be out of focus and that is already costing him.

There's a huge distance between Novak Djocovic and Daniil Medvedev in points and it's clearly visible that Medvedev has very little change against No. 1. He needs to practice a lot till he can beat the Serbian.

So this year the fight will be between Medvedev and Nadal. Making predictions is not exactly my cup of tea but if I were, I'd say Nadal has very little chance to get his second place back and that will hurt. He is not ready to say good bye to his position, I bet his dream or/and goal is to be No. 1 and now that goal is kind of unreachable.