Market master: System Betting vs. Flat Stakes: The Week 20 Case Study
A tale of two strategies: The Model recovers, but the Combo Bets fall short.
After a tough Week 19, the core predictive model bounced back with a solid 60% hit rate on match outcomes (1X2). However, the specific combinations played on the real-money slips didn't align, leading to a red week financially despite the improved theoretical performance.
Here is the full breakdown.
📋 Detailed Overview: Matchweek 20 Results
Match | Score | 1X2 Pick | Res | O/U Pick | Res | CS Pick | Res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest | 3-1 | Home | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 2-1 | ❌ |
Brighton v Burnley | 2-0 | Home | ✅ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
Wolves v West Ham | 3-0 | Home | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 2-1 | ❌ |
Bournemouth v Arsenal | 2-3 | Away | ✅ | Over | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
Leeds v Man United | 1-1 | Draw | ✅ | Over | ❌ | 2-2 | ❌ |
Everton v Brentford | 2-4 | Home | ❌ | Under | ❌ | 1-0 | ❌ |
Fulham v Liverpool | 2-2 | Away | ❌ | Over | ✅ | 1-2 | ❌ |
Newcastle v Crystal Palace | 2-0 | Home | ✅ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
Tottenham v Sunderland | 1-1 | Home | ❌ | Under | ✅ | 2-0 | ❌ |
Man City v Chelsea | 1-1 | Home | ❌ | Over | ❌ | 2-1 | ❌ |
📊 Model Performance (Flat Stakes)
📊 Model: Week 20 (1u Flat)
Model | Hitrate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
1X2 | 60% | +2.17u | +21.7% |
O/U | 50% | -1.00u | -10.0% |
CS | 0% | N/A | N/A |
TOT | +1.17u |
📈 History per Week
Week | Games | 1X2% | 1X2 P/L | O/U% | O/U P/L | CS% | CS P/L | Total P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13 | 10 | 50.0% | -0.96u | 50.0% | -1.06u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -2.02u |
14 | 10 | 40.0% | -2.91u | 70.0% | +2.52u | 10.0% | 0.00u | -0.39u |
15 | 10 | 50.0% | -1.23u | 40.0% | -3.59u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -4.82u |
16 | 10 | 70.0% | +3.53u | 50.0% | -1.40u | 0.0% | 0.00u | +2.13u |
17 | 10 | 70.0% | +4.94u | 50.0% | -1.90u | 50.0% | 0.00u | +3.04u |
18 | 10 | 50.0% | -0.93u | 60.0% | -0.15u | 30.0% | 0.00u | -1.08u |
19 | 10 | 20.0% | -6.98u | 50.0% | -1.74u | 0.0% | 0.00u | -8.72u |
20 | 10 | 60.0% | +2.17u | 50.0% | -1.00u | 0.0% | 0.00u | +1.17u |
TOT | 80 | 51.2% | -2.37u | 52.5% | -8.32u | 11.2% | 0.00u | -10.69u |
🧠 Analysis & Opinions
Here are the key takeaways from Week 20:
The "1X2" Bounce Back After the disastrous Week 19 (where the model only hit 20%), a 60% hit rate this week is a relief. The model correctly identified value in Aston Villa, Wolves, and Newcastle. If you were betting flat stakes (singles), you walked away with a healthy +21.7% ROI on match winners. This proves the core logic is stabilizing. Yes, believe it or not, it did predict the first win of the season of Wolves.
The "Man City" Bracket Buster The Man City v Chelsea draw (1-1) was the primary killer for the slips. The model heavily favored a City win and Over goals. This result alone torched the 1X2 ticket and the O/U ticket. When a heavy favorite stumbles at home, it usually wrecks accumulator/combo bets, which is exactly what happened here.
The Disconnect: Model vs. Wallet This week highlights the danger of Combination/System betting vs. Flat Betting.
The Model (Flat betting): Ended Green (+1.17u) because the wins paid enough to cover the losses.
The Wallet (Combos): Ended Red (-€4.82) because the wins were scattered.
The 4/6 system bet on 1X2 triggered a payout, but at €0.68, it wasn't enough to cover the €2.20 stake.
- Correct Score Variance We are still riding the high from the Week 17 massive payout, but the reality of Correct Score betting is weeks like this (0/4). The 3-1 Villa win and 3-0 Wolves win were close to standard predictions, but the 2-4 Everton loss and 2-2 Fulham draw were highly unpredictable scorelines.
🎫 Ticket Overview (Week 20)
⚠️ 1X2 Ticket | Profit: €-1.52
Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
Bournemouth v Arsenal | Away | Won | ✅ |
Brighton v Burnley | Home | Won | ✅ |
Man City v Chelsea | Home | Lost | ❌ |
Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest | Home | Won | ✅ |
Newcastle v Crystal Palace | Home | Won | ✅ |
Everton v Brentford | Home | Lost | ❌ |
❌ O/U Ticket | Profit: €-2.20
Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
Man City v Chelsea | Over | Lost | ❌ |
Brighton v Burnley | Over | Lost | ❌ |
Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest | Over | Won | ✅ |
Fulham v Liverpool | Over | Won | ✅ |
Newcastle v Crystal Palace | Over | Lost | ❌ |
Leeds v Man United | Over | Lost | ❌ |
❌ CS Ticket | Profit: €-1.10
Match | Selection | Res | |
|---|---|---|---|
Tottenham v Sunderland | 2-0 | Lost | ❌ |
Everton v Brentford | 1-0 | Lost | ❌ |
Newcastle v Crystal Palace | 2-1 | Lost | ❌ |
Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest | 2-1 | Lost | ❌ |
💰 Financial Summary per Week
Week | 1X2 P/L | O/U P/L | CS P/L | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
13 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
14 | -2.20€ | -1.18€ | -1.10€ | -4.48€ |
15 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
16 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
17 | -0.81€ | +2.28€ | +52.17€ | +53.64€ |
18 | -2.20€ | +2.61€ | -1.10€ | -0.69€ |
19 | -2.20€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -5.50€ |
20 | -1.52€ | -2.20€ | -1.10€ | -4.82€ |
TOT | -15.53€ | -7.29€ | +44.47€ | +21.66€ |
💰 Total Weekly Net: €-4.82
Status: The bankroll is still positive overall thanks to Week 17, but we have given back about €11.00 of profit over the last three weeks. Time to tighten up the O/U selection for Week 21.
Cheers, Peter
Keep refining it!