Day 1 - Arsenal vs Burnley 11/11/23

Dear friends, today I embark on my journey here. I will try to bring you one game per day. It may not always be possible, but within the available resources, I will do my best.

In each analyzed game, I will place four bets in the following markets: 1x2, over/under 2.5 goals, Both teams to score, correct score.

I will use "units" as the measurement for my stakes. Each of you can assign any value you want to each unit, whether it's 1 USD, 5 USD, 25 euros, 100 USD, etc. Just be consistent and always use the same unit.

I commit to posting a table at least once a week with all the daily tips, including the results and the Return on Investment (ROI).

Introductions made, let's begin with the first tip:

Arsenal vs Burnley

Arsenal and Burnley face off at the Emirates Stadium in a match for the 12th round of the Premier League. In this stadium, the head-to-head record favors the home team, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 4 encounters. However, the last time they met at this stadium was on 23-01-2022, in a Premier League match that ended in a draw (0-0).

Arsenal Analysis:
The home team is currently in 4th place with 24 points, after 7 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. In the last game, they won at home against Sheffield United (5-0). In the previous match, they lost away to Newcastle United (1-0). Arsenal typically plays in a 4-3-3 formation, with emphasis on constant transitions. Notable players in this setup include Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, and Gabriel Martinelli. Players such as Emile Smith-Rowe, Gabriel Jesus, and Thomas Partey are sidelined due to physical issues.

Arsenal has not lost at home in 6 games in this competition. Their attack has been consistent, scoring goals in 9 of the last 10 games. At home, there is a tendency for matches to have over 2.5 goals, with 38 out of 56 ending with more than 2.5 goals. In the 11 games played in the league, they managed to turn the score in only 1 of the 4 matches in which they conceded the first goal.

Burnley Analysis:
The visiting team is currently in 19th place with 4 points, obtained from 1 win, 1 draw, and 9 losses. In the last game, they lost away to AFC Bournemouth (2-1). In the previous match, they lost at home to Crystal Palace (0-2). Curiously, Burnley has been stronger away than at home in the last 30 games, with 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses as visitors. In the last 5 away games in the league, Burnley recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, earning 4 points out of 15 possible. Defensive solidity has not been their strong point, conceding at least one goal in each of the last 10 games. In 11 league games, they never managed to come from behind in the 6 games where they conceded the first goal.

Burnley comes into this match after a 0-2 home defeat to Crystal Palace. The team is expected to play in a 4-4-2 formation, emphasizing defensive organization and counter-attacks, especially through the flanks. Notable absentees due to physical issues include Aaron Ramsey, Lyle Foster, Benson Manuel, Hjalmar Ekdal, and Michael Obafemi.

Tip
The most likely scenario for this match is the occurrence of some goals. While an Arsenal-dominated game is expected, Burnley also has some interesting notes, especially in the attack. Therefore, a lively match is anticipated, with both goalkeepers constantly being put to the test.

Over 2.5 goals / odd 1.5 / stake 2 un.
Both teams to score / odd 1.62 / stake 1un.
Correct Score 3-0 / odd 7.5 / stake 1un.
1x2 Arsenal / odd 1.2 / stake 1un.

I'll be back soon with the result and more analyses. Good bets!