GW10 Premier League Previews and Free Bets with Samba Pools

Welcome back to the Premier League Predictions on Samba Pools!

For me, the football season proper starts now. The clocks have gone back, the leaves are falling off the trees and there is no better place to be on a cool crisp Autumn afternoon than watching the beautiful game!

A reminder to get your predictions in via Samba Pools by Friday for round 10s matches.

Here are the profit and loss rankings for this season and as you can see, it always pays to remain active on Hive. Last week's higher post payout meaning even @blanchy's predictions are turning a healthy profit!

Rank	Hive Account	Total profit/loss for the season (Hive)
1	@talesfrmthecrypt	7.129
2	@tengolotodo	3.525
3	@blancy	3.449
4	@thoth442	3.018
5	@doombot75	1.609
6	@seki	0.049
7	@amirtheawesome1	-0.320

Here are the key stats and considerations to keep in mind when predicting this week's results.

Brighton's bitty form this season (that's 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses) continued with a 4-2 defeat at Old Trafford underlining their threat going forward but weakness at the back.

It's now 11 goals conceded from open play by the Seagulls this season with only bottom placed Wolves having conceded more in 25/26. They are also yet to keep a clean sheet this season and in fact have no shut outs in their last 11 league matches.

That should give Leeds hope that they can get something from this match. They started strongly at home to West Ham last time out and were rewarded with 2 early goals. That being said, getting the first goal against Brighton isn't always a guarantee of success, they have 7 points from losing positions this season, joint best in the league.

Leeds 3-1 win at Wolves remain their only points and indeed only goals on the road so far this season. A win here would allow them to leapfrog Brighton with a crunch match against another relegation threatened team, Forest, to come ahead of the next international break.

It was an absolutely massive win for both these sides last weekend as Burnley snatched 3 points at the death while the Gunners won a hard fought victory as other title rivals slipped up.

This, you'd imagine, won't be an easy trip for top of the table Arsenal with Burnley's home form already looking likely to be the key factor in their survival chances. They resisted Liverpool here at Turf Moor until very late in the game when they gave away a penalty and Scott Parker's side are likely to be defensively well organised once again for this one. What's more, they don't concede many from set-plays (just 1 so far this season) although Arsenal will surely test that perceived strength.

The bottom line is this is not likely to be a goal fest. Burnley have the 2nd lowest shots on target per game stats for 25/26 while top placed Arsenal rank 9th on the same metric.

Burnley's weaknesses this season have been at the start of games where they've conceded 3 times in the first 15mins of matches and in the final third, where they've conceded 8 times in the last half an hour. For their part, Arsenal have scored just once in the first 30mins of games so far this season and then 15 times in the final hour. It suggests once again, that Burnley will have to defend doggedly for a full 90mins+ if they hope to get anything from this game.

Palace can probably feel quite unfortunate not to have got anything from their trip to the Emirates last weekend while by the same measure, Brentford put on another master class at home to a big 6 club in beating Liverpool.

Palace themselves beat Liverpool a few weeks ago in what was their only home win of the season so far having recorded disappointing draws against Forest, Sunderland and Bournemouth, having to come back from 2-0 in the last of those games to snatch a point.

Brentford got their first away win of the season against West Ham last time they travelled and despite losing the 3 games prior to that away from the Gtech, they have at least found the back of the net in all 4 away fixtures in EPL 25/26.

With Palace struggling to keep clean sheets themselves of late (none in their last 5 league games) then you'd imagine that both sides could find themselves on the score sheet again in this one, as has been the case in their last 6 Premier League meetings. In fact, the Bees managed the league double over Palace last season winning both fixtures 2-1.

What a massive game this is! Wolves we already know are in meltdown following yet another defeat with fans and players clashing after the game and apparently a fight nearly breaking out in the car park as the players left the ground.

Fulham fans clearly still have a lot of time for Marco Silva and why wouldn't they? He has done an excellent job of making them a competitive Premier League side with very little investment.

However, they have now lost 4 league matches in a row which leaves them in 17th position, just 3 points above the relegation spots. With this match, a trip to Everton and then a visit of Sunderland, you'd imagine we will know pretty quickly whether this is just a blip or whether the Cottagers are sleep walking into a relegation battle.

As with so many sides in the bottom third of the league, it's home form that will ultimately get them out of trouble. 7 of Fulham's 8 points this season have come at Craven Cottage with only top of the table Arsenal having taken a victory here. By contrast, Wolves have scored just once away from home all season.

That being said, Wolves won here 4-1 at a similar stage last season. How they would love that result to end their long wait for a league win in 25/26! Let's hope for another entertaining fixture between these 2 who have served up 16 goals in their last 4 encounters.

Sean Dyche takes charge of his first home match as Forest boss knowing that patience is not a virtue that his boss or perhaps the Nottingham faithful hold in high regard.

Forest were generally second best at Bournemouth at the weekend in what was quite a niggly, bad-tempered affair. Dyche is clearly trying to instil some fight into this group of players but they ultimately conceded 2 cheap goals which has very much been the story of their season to date.

In the other dugout, Amorim now has 3 league wins in a row and can begin to breath a little easier himself after a difficult start to the season. The expensively assembled front line is beginning to show signs of clicking with United scoring 8 goals in the 3 Premier League games in October. Given Forest's defensive record, they might well fancy adding to that tally.

Forest do have the psychological advantage of having won their last 3 leagues matches against United. The Red Devils haven't kept a clean sheet away from home since March but Forest are the lowest scorers in the league this season with 5 goals, 3 of which came on the opening day of the season! It's 448 Premier League minutes and counting since Forest supporters last had a league goal to celebrate.

Whether you support one of these 2 teams or not, this is probably 1 of the Premier League fixtures that you should definitely mark to watch in any given season. There always seems to be drama, goals and potentially a touchline punch up thrown in for good measure (I'm not sure Thomas Frank is your man in that regard but you never know).

Spurs led 2-0 after 11 minutes last season and yet managed to lose 3-4 and who can forget the game the season before that when Spurs also lead (and had what might have been goal of the season ruled out for offside to make it 2-0) before playing most of the game with 9 men and a defensive line so high that they required oxygen masks before Chelsea ultimately remembered how the offside rule worked and went onto win 1-4.

Neither of these sides has really established true form this season. Spurs in particular have looked poor at home with just their opening day victory at Burnley for their supporters to celebrate. That remains their only victory at the Tottenham Hotspurs stadium in their last 8 league matches here and is no doubt why both supporters and players are a little bit edgy. A win in a fixture of this magnitude against a club that they have a shocking record against could really blow away the cobwebs.

For Chelsea, they continue to play like what they are. A very talented but largely inexperienced group of players that look brilliant 1 week and then lacking the next.

What might ultimately prevent this game from being another goal fest is the lack of penetration from either sides' forward lines in recent weeks. Brazilians Richarlison and Joao Pedro both started the season strongly but neither has scored in the last 4 rounds of matches.

Here are 2 teams experiencing very different runs of form at the moment!Reigning champions Liverpool have lost 4 on the bounce while Villa have won their last 4 in the league.

Much has been said about Liverpool's tactics and their struggles to integrate some of their high value new signings into a new system but for me, the thing that is really derailing their season is a lack of leadership and a lack of desire on the pitch. This is the Premier League! You've got to turn-up, you've got to win your 50-50s, you've got to earn the right to play the way you want to and all season, Liverpool have looked lethargic and generally disinterested.

That much is true particularly at the start of each half. Liverpool have conceded 4 goals in the first 15mins of games this season and scored just once themselves. They've conceded a further 3 in the first 15 mins after half time. The only side with a comparably poor record at the start of a match is Villa who have conceded 3 and scored none in the first 15mins of the match. To their credit, the Villans have managed to win 6 points from losing positions this season, Liverpool have won none!

You have to go all the way back to 2014 for the last time Villa won at Anfield but they must fancy their chances of getting something from this visit on current form. Speaking of contests between the 2, who can forget the crazy 7-2 match the sides played out (at Villa Park) shortly after Liverpool had won their first Premier League title in 2020.

Anything less than victory here today would leave Slot's side potentially 10 points off top place and that already might be too much of a mountain to climb.

I guess the only thing that Nuno can take from yet another defeat for West Ham is that his side did fight to get back into the game against Leeds in the 2nd half. The downside is, that you can't keep conceding cheap goals and expect to pick up points.

When we've spoken about other sides that you'd expect to be in and around the bottom third of the league table in 6 months time, we always highlight the importance of home form. Unfortunately, West Ham can't buy a point, let alone a win at home! Newcastle haven't been defeated here in their last 4 visits, highlighting how this a trend rather than just a temporary down-turn in form.

Newcastle themselves have made themselves difficult to beat on their travels with 3 draws from 4 away matches this season conceding just once in the process. That being said, they've only scored once away from home this season and must be looking at this fixture as an opportunity to take 3 points back to the North East and push themselves into the top half of the table.

West Ham have the worst defensive record in the league so far with 20 goals conceded, 9 of which have come from set pieces. Quite how they can be that bad in an aspect of the game that is of such importance hints at levels of almost criminal negligence.

Too early to call this a title clash? Certainly City will need the win to keep up the pressure on Arsenal at the top of the table while if Bournemouth were to get something from the Ethiad, it would only increase the feeling at least on social media that they could 'do a Leicester'.

Pep and City know what they'll get from this Bournemouth side. They will be pressed high and pressed relentlessly. We've already seen Spurs win at the Ethiad by deploying a man to man marking system that put significant pressure on City's goalkeeper and back line when they were in possession and I'd anticipate we'll see something similar in this fixture.

The Cherries are also excellent on the counter attack having already scored more goals on the break (5) than any other side this season. City for their part have been a little bit more disciplined at the back than in previous years and are yet to concede from a counter attack.

City's primary strength this season is Haaland but the inability of other players to chip in with goals is also looking like a significant weakness. In their last 5 league matches their only other goal scorers have been Matheus Nunes and own goal (x 2) and both of those instances came in the 5-1 demolition of Burnley. Bournemouth's mission then is to keep the Norwegian quiet and bank on the rest of City squad continuing to be shot shy.

The bad news for Bournemouth? They've never taken even a single point from a game at City and have conceded 31 goals in their previous 8 Premier League visits!

Bearing in mind that Leicester City finished in 18th last season with 25 points, you could start to suggest that Sunderland are just few wins away from safety! I don't expect that the bottom 3 will be quite as far off the pace as they were last season, so perhaps it's better to say that with a win here Sunderland will be half way to the safety that the 40 point mark has usually provided.

How are they getting there? Well quite simply by being very solid at the back, fairly unspectacular in the middle and clinical up top. To put that into context, Sunderland have only had 25 shots on target this season (the lowest in the league) and 11 of them have been goals! They have the 4th lowest possession and the 4th worst pass completion rate but the 6th best xG against. In other words, unless you hail from Teeside, I wouldn't go out of your way to watch them play and of course some of those stats are likely to see their season balance out at some point.

Home form will continue to be crucial for both clubs and Everton have only taken points once on their travels this season at bottom placed Wolves.

Clinical finishing is not something that the Toffees can claim to be delivering at present. Beto has the 2nd worst xG difference in the league of players who have played 500mins or more this season.

Coming back from behind is also something that Everton have struggled with this year. Only their home win against Palace was delivered from a losing position and their first goal in that match was the only equaliser they've scored in 25/26. That plus the fact that there have been only 37 goals scored in the 18 matches these 2 have competed in this season suggest this this will be a tight game, settled by the odd goal.