GW5 Premier League Previews and Free Bets with Samba Pools

Welcome back to Premier League previews and tips for Samba Pools round 5!

This week on Samba Pools sees the introduction of a slightly new scoring system which you can read about via @mengao 's post here.

You can read a full break down of the results from round 4 here and it leaves our leaderboard looking as follows.

Rank	Hive Account	Total profit/loss for the season (Hive)
1	@tengolotodo	2.134
2	@doombot75	1.566
3	@talesfrmthecrypt	1.453
4	@blancy	1.284
5	@thoth442	0.903
6	@seki	0.049
7	@amirtheawesome1	-0.320

Doombot's commanding win takes him into 2nd place but still a fair way behind tengolotodo who continues to turn a profit with his predictions this season.

New players are of course welcome and a reminder that you can claim a portion of the rewards from this post by making your predictions via Samba Pools. Follow the instructions here on how to join.

What a great game to kick-off the week!

Liverpool, the reigning champions, have 4 wins from 4 but you'd struggle to say that they've been truly convincing in any of those games yet and have had to dig deep to win each of them.

On one hand, you might say that it's the 'mark of champions' to pull victories out of the hat in the manner they've achieved to date but on the other, I don't think it's sustainable over a long period of time and based on early season form, they'll need to be on it throughout the 90mins to get a win against this Everton team.

Wins in this fixture have become pretty rare over recent times for the blue half of Merseyside with just 2 in their last 32 attempts for Everton. They did get 1 of those wins at Anfield in the Spring of 2024 2-0 but otherwise Liverpool have dominated at home during the Premier League era.

Everton were wasteful against Aston Villa last weekend, recording the highest xG of the round for a side that failed to score (1.89). After a shaky start at the back, Liverpool have now kept 2 clean sheets but they've failed to score from open play in their last 2 matches.

7 of the last 8 matches between these 2 sides at Anfield have finished with a win to nil for Liverpool but never by more than 2 goals. I suspect we'll see another fairly cagey game here as Everton look to frustrate their hosts and hit them on the counter attack.

Spurs got back to winning ways with a comfortable victory against a struggling West Ham side in round 3 while Brighton failed to kick-on after beating Man City, going down 2-1 to Bournemouth last time out.

Spurs only defeat so far and indeed the only team to have scored past them this season was Bournemouth who pressed Thomas Frank's team high up the pitch, suffocating them at every opportunity.

Brighton's modus operandi is not much different. The Seagulls ranked 5th in Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) last season (Bournemouth were top) and 1st as far as the number of times they limited an opposition to 3 or fewer passes during a phase of play (493 times during 24/25).

There are however concerns for Brighton at both ends of the pitch. Their array of attacking options from last year seems to be fairly limited by comparison this season and 2 of the 4 goals they've scored have come from the penalty spot. Danny Welbeck has the 5th highest xG per 90mins in the Premier League (min 200mins played) but is yet to find the back of the net. Meanwhile, Brighton are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. In fact, they have just 1 clean sheet in their last 16 Premier League matches!

It's not been an easy start for Big Ange at Forest. Ok, you wouldn't expect much from a trip to Arsenal but to lead by 2 goals against Championship opposition and then end up losing is a worrying capitulation.

It wasn't a full strength Forest team that played Swansea on Wednesday night and clearly their focus is still very much the Premier League and the European fixtures that begin next week. With this game against Burnley and a home match against Sunderland, there is an opportunity to build some momentum for a team that has made life harder for itself in these early stages.

For Burnley, I guess the main improvement they'll be looking for is not conceding a last minute penalty to lose the match! They've defended with great heart against some far superior opposition so far this season and it is therefore notable that they have the worst xG against of any side.

Home form looks likely to be the defining factor to their season so this is a big opportunity to get further points on the board. I wouldn't expect an open match here.

After a bit of a shock win at Forest prior to the international break, West Ham reverted to type by putting in a poor performance at home to Spurs last time out.

Once again, their achilles heel was dead ball situations. They had the referee to thank for not being a goal behind from a corner in the first half but finally did go behind early in the 2nd half and once again never looked likely to get back into the match. West Ham have now conceeded 6 goals from set pieces this season which to put into context is 3 times more than anyone else and accounts for 29% of all the set piece goals scored this year.

I doubt things will get much easier in this match! Palace have only scored 1 from set plays this season but finished last season with 16 goals from set-pieces, 2nd highest in the league.

Oliver Glasner bemoaned his squad's lack of depth at the end of the midweek win against Milwall. While many managers had the luxury of resting their star players, Glasner was forced to give the likes of Mateta another full 90mins. It is worth remembering that Palace played the Community Shield and 2 qualifying matches in Europe already this season so there already slim resources are going to be stretched over the coming months.

This a fixture that Palace have dominated in recent years with 4 wins and a draw in their last 6 encounters. We've also seen a few goals too with a 5-2 win for Palace in the Spring of 2024 and 4-3 for them the year prior to that.

This already feels like a huge game at the bottom of the table with Wolves still searching for their first points of the season against a Leeds side who are highly likely to be in the bottom quarter come May.

That pressure, added to the fact that Wolves have scored just twice this season and Leeds only once, is likely to mean that this is a fairly cagey affair.

That being said, neither of these sides has had to contend with midweek football since their last Premier League game and Leeds had the fewest players of any EPL club away on international duty (5).

If there was ever a time for Leeds to score their first goal of the season from open play then surely it's against this opposition. Wolves have conceded 7 goals from open play this season, almost twice as many as any other team in the 4 games played so far (there are 4 sides who have conceded 4).

The glamour tie for a Saturday afternoon sees United host Chelsea.

The home side has had a week to reflect on their poor showing in the derby last Sunday and you'd expect a response at home in this game. For their part, Chelsea are licking their wounds following a defeat to Bayern on Wednesday night.

The problem for United at the moment seems to be that you can score past them in a variety of different ways. They concede goals from open play, on the counter attack and from set-pieces.

With Amorim's very rigid formation and limited squad, you also know how they are going to set-up each and every game which in the Premier League is just asking for trouble.

Much has been made of United's midfield, or lack there of, and that part of the pitch is where you would say this Chelsea side is capable of dominating any side in the division. That being said, there are still question marks over their attack and their defence and United have shown signs of life when coming forward. In fact, their xG for the season is currently higher than any other side (8.46) but they've hit the back of the net just 4 times.

Confidence is therefore as much an issue as anything for this United team. If they score early, could we see a repeat of the 4-1 victory they achieved towards the end of 2023? I'd suggest that this match will be a lot closer with far fewer goals as has been the case when these 2 teams have met at similar stages of the season in recent years. The last 4 Autumn matches between these 2 going back to 2020 have finished 0-0, 1-1, 1-1 & 1-1.

Another week, another West London derby.

These 2 sit in 11th and 12th respectively and you'd say this will be an evenly match affair.

This will be Brentford's 3rd home fixture this month with the previous 2 finishing in score draws, 2-2 vs Chelsea in the league and 1-1 against Villa in the cup.

Fulham managed the double over Brentford last season including a 3-2 win at the Gtech as recently as May. With just a single draw in their last 10 matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game during their previous meetings in the Premier League then perhaps this match is a bit of a dark horse for one of the more exciting results of the weekend.

Bournemouth have had a great start to the season with just the solitary league defeat in their opening match to Liverpool. By contrast, Newcastle have struggled to get going so far and have clearly been disrupted by the Isak saga across the summer.

Now might be the time for the Magpies to begin to click through the gears but their trip to the South Coast is full of danger. For starters, the Cherries have a great record under Areola of beating higher profile sides, particularly at home. Meanwhile, Newcastle have had to slog it out with Barcelona for 90mins 3 days ahead of the match before a sizable journey (by English standards) down to the South coast to take on a side who have had the week off!

There is then the not insignificant fact that Newcastle got absolutely spanked the last time these 2 sides met, losing 4-1 at St James Park. In fact, since Eddie Howe took over at Newcastle, he hasn't tasted league success at all against his former employers with a record of 4 draws and 2 defeats.

Boy do Villa need a win in this one. They've been really poor this season with no win and indeed no goals score yet in the Premier League. They did at least get off the mark in the League Cuo during the week with Harvey Eliot getting his first for the club before they ultimately went down on penalties to Brentford.

Sunderland for their part ground out a fairly turgid 0-0 with Palace last time out but will feel confident that they can compete at home in front of a partisan crowd.

The last time the 2 sides met they were both in the Championship and a win here today would help allay some immediate fears that one or both of the clubs might find themselves heading back in that direction come the end of the season.

This is probably the highest profile fixture of the week with Arsenal looking to defeat Premier League rivals City at the Emirates.

It used to be that Arsenal had a bit of inferiority complex against this City side but that narrative has been gradually changing. Arsenal are unbeaten against City in their 5 fixtures despite having previously suffered 16 straight league defeats to the former champions.

Don't expect any favours from this Arsenal side, they look like they really enjoy keeping a clean sheet having conceeded once all season and that from an absolute thunderbolt in the Liverpool team.

Arsenal will also enjoy an additional 48 hours off while their players may be slightly fitter and sharper anyway after Pep took the unusual step for him of naming an unchanged team from one that beat United on Sunday to that taking on Napoli as I write.

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