GW9 Premier League Previews and Free Bets with Samba Pools

There's an old adage in English football that says you shouldn't bother looking at the league table until the end of October. Well I guess we better start looking then!

At the same time, that table remains very congested with a side like Brentford sitting in 13th as close to Bournemouth in 3rd as they are to Forest who are 3rd bottom. All in all, it means that a good couple of results or a bad couple of performances can still massively change the perception of whether a team has had 'a good start to the season' or not even as we reach the quarter way mark.

A reminder to get your predictions in via Samba Pools by Thursday!

Here are the profit and loss ranking for this season

Rank	Hive Account	Total profit/loss for the season (Hive)
1	@tengolotodo	3.525
2	@thoth442	3.018
3	@talesfrmthecrypt	2.033
4	@doombot75	1.609
5	@seki	0.049
6	@blancy	-0.077
7	@amirtheawesome1	-0.320

Lets dive straight into the previews and predictions for this weekend's action.

A bit of a weird one for West Ham who get to play Monday night and now Friday night. Their penance for being a well supported club without European football I assume.

Leeds will certainly be hungry for a victory in this one following defeat at Burnley in a match which they dominated from start to finish yet managed to lose 2-0. Having lost to Spurs prior to that, in another performance that probably didn't warrant defeat, Daniel Farke will be keen to get something from this fixture regardless of how.

It's not difficult to see the issues that Leeds face at both the back and front. They have an xG against of 8.68 but have conceded 13 goals. Meanwhile up top, they have an xG of 10.36 but have scored just 7 times. Individual errors and missed opportunities have therefore combined to cost Leeds 7.68 goals this season, so basically a goal a game, the worst record of any team in an unforgiving league.

Leeds have kept 2 clean sheets here at Elland Road but that came back in August. West Ham's defensive issues are well documented and while you'd expect Nuno to improve them in that department they haven't kept a clean sheet in the league all season.

All 4 of their points have come on their travels this season and they'll be desperate to add to that tally. By contrast, a defeat would leave them 7 points behind a likely relegation candidate.

I don't think it would an unfair assessment to say that Chelsea were absolute dog shit in the first half of their game against Forest on Saturday and should have found themselves 2 or 3 down by half-time. The Chelsea manager certainly agreed and made 3 half-time substitutions which aided by some shoddy defending eventually saw them run out comfortable winners.

Clearly the aim at Chelsea is for them to have a squad capable of competing on all fronts but at the moment finding a best XI, particularly with the Blues experiencing a few injury setbacks, appears to be a difficult task for Maresca. Discipline too is an issue with 4 sendings off in their last 6 matches!

Both sides find themselves on 14 points coming into the game which for Chelsea would be a bit of an under-achievement but for Sunderland is a massive over-achievement. A win here would send the Blackcats, at least temporarily, into the Champions League places!

With just 6 goals conceded this season, Sunderland have the joint 2nd best defensive record in the league and while they won't terrify any Premier League defence going forward, they carry enough of a threat to keep them in the game.

Newcastle's stuttering start to the season continues with just 2 wins to their name thus far with both coming here at St James Park.

Their opponents Fulham haven't faired much better and have now lost 3 on the bounce in the Premier League. They do at least come into this match knowing that they managed the league double over Newcastle last season.

Fulham also have the advantage of not playing midweek while Newcastle entertain Jose Mourinho's Benfica here on Tuesday night in a match they'll want to win to keep their hopes of Champions League progression alive.

Having scored just 7 and 8 league goals respectively this season and with a fair bit riding on this result (both teams would find themselves uncomfortably close to the bottom 3 with a defeat) then I'd anticipate a tight, low scoring game here.

Whisper it quietly but Manchester United have managed to win back to back games for the first time under Amorim's rule. Is this the start of a gradual turn-around or just another false dawn?

Over the past couple of years, United have certainly saved their best performances for the biggest matches which is why despite their general poor form, they've managed to reach 3 finals in the last 3 years. Now they need to be able to deliver on a consistent basis, week on week.

In that regard, Brighton are probably United's worst nightmare. They've beaten them 6 times in the last 7 league meetings including the last 3 games here at Old Trafford.

The Seagulls got a much needed win themselves last weekend against Newcastle. These are both sides who've looked better at home than they have away this season. Brighton's only away win coming against 10 man Chelsea last month. They've also kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 10 away outings in the Premier League but equally have scored in 9 of those games too suggesting that this could be an entertaining fixture.

Let's talk about Brentford first because they got a massive win away at West Ham on Monday night to take them to 10 points for the season. It now means that they are as close to the top 4 as they are the relegation zone and while it's difficult to imagine that they'll get anywhere near the European spots come the end of the season, survival will surely be enough for a smaller club going through a period of transition.

Along the way they can also do a bit of damage to some of the larger team's ambitions particularly at home where they've already beaten Villa and United, taken a point from Chelsea and given City a tough ride in a 1-0 defeat.

In other words, they aren't exactly the type of opposition that Liverpool will want to play at the moment! It is now a full blown crisis for the reigning champions even if I think that it's quite clear that they massively over-achieved last season. Of course, when you spend a huge amount of money then it's difficult to ask for patience and so Slot needs to start winning again.

Liverpool's leaky defence will have to be on it's guard against a Brentford side that has the personnel to hurt them on the counter attack. The Bees have already scored 3 goals in that manner this season. Only Bournemouth, who also exposed Liverpool's defence on the counter, have scored more.

Liverpool have not always found it easy going at the GTech. They needed 2 goals in stoppage time from Darwin Nunez (remember him) to win here last season having lost in the 22/23 season and drawn the year before that.

Into Sunday and an intriguing game between Arsenal and Crystal Palace. Generally, you'd say that Palace are probably one of the last teams in the league you'd want to play following a midweek European fixture but of course they themselves have to juggle multiple commitments this season.

Incredibly, despite losing one of their key attacking players in Eze to today's rivals, Palace have maintained arguably the most effective attack in the league this season. Certainly stats wise, they've recorded the highest xG of any side this season and have created the 6th most chances (72). All that coming from just 42.7% possession! Only Burnley and Brentford have had the ball less than Palace this season.

Of course, they find themselves up against Arsenal who have probably the best defence in the league with the lowest xG against this season (5.54).

The likely pattern of play then will be Arsenal having about 60% of the ball trying to break down this Palace defence while also guarding against their transitional play which is some of the best in Europe at this point in time.

The Gunners threw away a 2 goal lead in the corresponding fixture last season but prior to that have dominated the Eagles, scoring 22 goals past them in their last 7 meetings.

For 2 sides who have slowly grown into the season, this represents a massive opportunity to stake a claim to have had a 'good start to the season'.

Villa have now won 3 on the bounce in the league (5 in all competitions) and are unbeaten in their last 5 EPL fixtures. The only point of concern might be that they've conceded in their last 4 games and this is not a City side that you want to offer up too many chances too.

In the league at least, it's a similar run for City with 3 in a row and 5 unbeaten since losing at Brighton. Even through the tougher parts of last season, their home form remained pretty solid but away they've been patchy at best. Since the start of 2025 City have 6 away wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats. Hardly terrible given how difficult every away match in the Premier League is but also not to the levels required to win the title.

In fact, City have failed to win on their last 3 visits to Villa Park with Unai Emery's side inflicting a 2-1 defeat last season and 1-0 prior to that. I'd expect this to be a pretty closely fought match with a high chance of both sides getting on the scoresheet.

We think that by the time this match starts, Sean Dyche will have been appointed Forest's 3rd manager of the season. Whether he'll be in charge long enough to give a post-match press conference remains to be seen.

Like Liverpool or possibly even more so, it's obvious that Forest massively overachieved last season. In fact, you could argue their bubble burst somewhere around March 2025 and they've been on the decline ever since. The issue now is that the decline is getting steeper and steeper and Forest are heading towards the trap door at the bottom. Forest fans don't need reminding of what's down there or how difficult it can be to claw yourself back up.

On paper, Dyche's tactics are more likely to suit the Forest side that was getting results at this stage last season but it's still going to be a massive challenge. For one, he inherits a bloated squad full of players who may or may not (probably the later) fit his style of play. Will he be given the freedom to create his very own 'bomb squad'? I suspect not.

Bournemouth are the complete opposite. A relatively small squad who know exactly what their manager wants and as a result are sitting 3rd in the Premier League. The only concern for Areola at the moment is that they've failed to convert from winning positions in 2 of their last 3 matches. You get the feeling they will have the opportunity to atone for that in this fixture.

We've seen enough of both teams this season to confidently call this a 6 pointer. I'd put my mortgage on at least 1 of these sides being relegated come the end of the season and if either is to escape the drop, they'll need to win matches like this.

Burnley have at least delivered against weaker opposition so far this year with their 2nd win of the campaign coming against newly promoted Leeds following on from a victory against Sunderland earlier in the season.

That win has, at least temporarily, moved them out of the bottom 3 and once again demonstrated that home form is going to be crucial for Scott Parker's side this season with all 8 points coming at Turf Moor. Given their upcoming run of fixtures which sees visits from Arsenal, Chelsea and Palace in their next 3 home games and away trips to bottom placed Wolves and 2nd bottom West Ham in 2 weeks time then you'd feel that record needs to balance out if they are to keep their head above water.

As for Wolves, they had a pretty good go at it in the 2nd half at Sunderland but they just lack the quality to put the ball in the back of the net (16 shots, 3 on target). They are now the only side in the top 5 flights of English football not to have won a league game this season and that is a massive albatross to carry into such a crucial match.

The final game of the round sees 2 of the Premier League's ever present sides go head to head in what should be an entertaining match. The equivalent fixture finished 3-2 to the Toffees last season and if you look back over the last 10 matches between these 2, there have been 39 goals!

At the same time, what we have is a game between 2 experienced Premier League managers both looking to establish themselves with a new team (2nd time around for Moyes). That then perhaps suggests a little bit more caution and a little less fluidity in attacking play.

Everton are unbeaten in their new home this season but face a Spurs side that have taken 3 wins and a draw on the road in 25/26. In fact, given Spurs terrible home form of late, Thomas Frank and his side might be grateful of the fact that their next 3 games are on the road.

Ultimately, it might come down to which striker on either side can find their scoring boots in this one. The likes of Grealish, Kudus, et al will be a threat down for both teams but Beto/Barry and Richarlison/Tel have failed to really convince that they have the quality and predatory instinct to capitalise on that play.