Hive FPL - Game Week 30 Match Analysis & Key Stats

Massive games at both ends of the table featured in an enthralling GW30.

As far as the Hive FPL league is looking, it was a good week for @deniskj recording 70 points while his closest rivals could both only manage under average scores. There's still plenty to play for but he's certainly going to be difficult to catch with just 8 game weeks to go.

Top 10 in the Hive FPL after GW30

United recorded a comfortable win against relegation candidates Everton in Saturday's early kick-off. With a record high number of shots on target in the first half this season, United dominated the game from start to finish and as far as fantasy managers are concerned they'd have only hoped for a few more goals and points for the likes of Rashford and Fernandes who remain popular picks.

Rashford had 7 shots at goal himself with Fernandes recording another 4. The winger did finally come up with an assist while owners of the Portugese midfielder will be slightly disappointed that he didn't get any bonus points given the influence he had on the game. Of course with Rashford picking up a knock during the match, it may be that managers need to look for alternatives going forward and at the time of writing, Rashford is the most transferred out player for GW31...

As for Everton, there main attacking threat was Ellis Simms with 4 efforts at goal and an expected goals of 0.51 from the 71mins he was on the pitch. Given the other budget options available in forward positions this year, it's understandable that Simms isn't yet featuring in many teams (0.1% at the moment) but if he can get a run in the team then he could be pivotal to Everton's survival chances.

After a drab first half, an early Villa goal brought this game to life but ultimately once again exposed Forest's weaknesses on the road.

Ollie Watkins scored again, to make it 9 goals in 14 games since the start of 2023. He's now scored in 9 out of his last 11 Premier League matches and is the best ranked player in as far as goal threat is concerned over the past 10 game weeks.

Villa have also recorded 5 clean sheets from their last 7 Premier League fixtures and so at a time of the season when getting points from your defenders and keeper is proving increasingly difficult, managers might want to start looking to the East Midlands club.

Newcastle did what few have managed this season in getting 3 points from a trip to West London. Their win was even more impressive considering they had to come from behind.

After a bit of a blip in the run up to the League Cup final, the Magpies look to be back to their best and are tightening their grip on a Champions League spot. Both Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak have looked sharp in recent weeks and the real challenge for FPL managers is knowing which one of them will start! Isak was given the nod for this match and he made it 4 game weeks in a row that he has found the back of the net.

Brentford themselves have the ever reliable Ivan Toney. The Bees just keep getting penalties this year and he never looks like missing one! Where he and Brentford will be disappointed is that they couldn't take any of their chances in open play with Toney himself having expected non-penalty goals of 1.

Given the Hammers capitulation at home during the week, this game represented a massive win and performance for the under pressure David Moyes and his team.

Fulham meanwhile are yet to recover from the mad few moments they experienced during the FA Cup quarter final at Old Trafford. With key players and the manager missing since then, the Cottagers have looked a long way short of what we saw in the first hour of that game when they were the better team. 4 straight league defeats in a row means that Europe is now looking unlikely and if they don't turn things around quickly, they may not even finish in the top half.

Jarrod Bowen and Danny Ings look like West Ham's most likely points scorers although I wouldn't necessarily trust that Ings is fit enough to play 90 mins with any regulatory.

The sacking of Brendon Rodgers has done little to ease the dire situation that Leicester now find themselves in. James Maddison, a popular pick amongst FPL managers, was at fault for the goal which saw visitors Bournemouth move 5 points clear of their hosts.

It was Philip Billing who managed to capitalise on that mistake from the England international and as noted in a recent post on the relegation battle, it will be very much down to him and Dominick Solanke for the Cherries in their bid for survival. For his part, Solanke managed 6 efforts on goal and registered expected goals of 0.84.

Most of Bournemouth's remaining games this season come against sides in the bottom half so they might not be the worst bet if you're looking for differentials to make up the points difference in your respective fantasy leagues.

Brighton players and fans felt they were hard done by with a couple of the refereeing and VAR decisions in this match which saw them have a goal disallowed and a penalty claim turned down.

The defeat as well as wins for those above them, probably ends the Seagulls realistic hopes of sneaking into the Champions League spots even if they have games in hand. However, with the likes of Brentford and Liverpool dropping points a spot in the Europa League is very much within their grasp.

The 3 Ms of Mitoma, Mac Allister and March continue to look like decent picks with all 3 heavily involved in Brighton's attacking play once again.

As for Spurs, another disappointing performance but at least it ended in 3 points which has been the case in their last 5 home matches at home. Harry Kane has scored 6 times during those 5 wins while Heung-Min Son has added a further 3. If you are going to select Spurs players then, it looks like you'd be best doing in when they play at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

It's quite simple, Chelsea just cannot put the ball in the back of the net! It's now 284 mins since Chelsea scored in the Premier League and without a recognised striker, that record doesn't look likely to improve despite the re-introduction of Frank Lampard as manager.

Chelsea managed just a solitary shot on target against Wolves and worse than that, they looked like they lacked the necessary fitness levels to really haul themselves back into this match against a well drilled Wolves team.

As has been so often the case with the Molineux side, they look much better when playing bigger clubs who are happy to dominate proceedings. That being said, their best chances in this game came from long range and I very much doubt that managers will be rushing to transfer in the forward players on display on either side.

Erling Haaland returned to the City starting line-up with a bang. It was the Norwegian's 8th multi-goal game week of the season but his first since a hattrick against Wolves back in mid-January. Despite that slight decrease in returns, Haaland remains in over three quarters of the FPL sides out there.

Otherwise it is Jack Grealish who remains an attractive purchase. The England midfielder has started in each of City's last 11 Premier League matches and that run in the side is being rewarded by an improved return. Grealish has now recorded 7 goal involvements in his last 8 EPL appearances.

The real frustration for FPL managers is the fact that City keep on thrashing teams but at the same time conceding soft goals to reduce the likelihood of a clean sheet bonus. City have conceded a goal in all the games that they've scored 3 or more goals in since the Premier League restarted following the World Cup.

As for Southampton, they are now 4 points adrift of safety and don't realistically look like they have the quality in their squad to get out of the situation they find themselves in.

I mentioned in a recent post that Roy Hodgson realistically needed 3 wins for Palace to ensure that he kept them in the Premier League and he's already got 2 of those not to mention significantly improving his side's goal difference against a fellow relegation candidate in this game.

For a side that has only scored 10 goals away from home all season coming into this match, I don't think that many would have imagined that Palace would net 5 against a Leeds side that has generally been tough to beat at Elland Road.

In a previous FPL post, I had mentioned that Michael Olise has looked like a decent player but just lacked the forwards around him to turn his industry and creativity into goals. Hodgson seems to have released the handbrake for this Palace side and it was perhaps no great surprise to see him get a hattrick of assists in this game. Palace play a significant number of games against the sides below for the remainder of the season so perhaps players like Olise might not be such a bad bet.

Undoubtedly the game of the weekend and probably one of the matches of the season came at Anfield as Arsenal throwaway a 2 goal lead to Liverpool who probably should have won the game at the end.

For the first period of the game, the Gunners were totally dominate leaving Liverpool struggling to get a foothold in the match. Arsenal recorded 1.41 of their total expected goals in the first 45mins. Conversely for the first 20mins Liverpool managed expected goals of just 0.03!

However, a bit shirt tugging and handbags at 5 paces between Xhaka and TAA seemed to wake Liverpool and the Anfield crowd up. Liverpool pulled one back before the break and Arteta would have been grateful of the half-time whistle with Liverpool very much in the ascendancy. That domination continued into the 2nd half with Mo Salah missing a penalty before the game became stretched as Liverpool chased an equaliser affording opportunities at both ends.

Bobbie Firmino came on to score yet again against Arsenal (11 goals vs the Gunners for him) and it could have been better for the home team but for a could of last gasp saves from Aaron Ramsdale.

Arsenal will ultimately be concerned that Liverpool recorded expected goals on 4.64. As far as fantasy picks are concerned, Liverpool are very much like Spurs. If you could only select their players for matches you probably would. Let's see if they can put in a similarly impressive attacking performance in midweek away matches at Leeds and West Ham over the next couple of weeks...

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Congratulations to the 3 Hive accounts with the highest scores this week who all get a share in the rewards of this post
@borran
@dante31
@thelonegreywolf