The Dual Impact of Signing Shohei Ohtani
REFERENCES AT THE END OF THIS POST
As the Major League Baseball season plays out it's in it's final quarter with about 40 games or so to go and with my team sucking most of the season and have no shot in hell at making the playoffs, I'm already buzzing like most baseball fans about the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes this offseason. Also, I just don't see the Anaheim Angels making the playoffs this season, but they have a better shot than my favorite team the New York Mets.
Introduction
In an era of increasing specialization in sports, Shohei Ohtani stands out as a true baseball unicorn. His excellence as both an elite starting pitcher and a power-hitting outfielder make him one of the most unique and coveted players in Major League Baseball today. As Ohtani's free agency looms ahead of the 2024 season, speculation abounds regarding the potential financial windfall for the team that ultimately signs him.
Ohtani's Market Value: A Rare Gem
Industry experts project Ohtani's next contract to be record-shattering, likely exceeding $500 million in total value. "A player of Ohtani's caliber comes along once in a generation," notes MLB analyst Jeff Passan. "His versatility and production as a two-way star make him baseball's most valuable commodity right now."
Ohtani’s projected market value reflects not only his on-field excellence but also his international appeal, especially in Japan. His games draw substantial viewership in his home country, creating lucrative opportunities for international sponsorships and broadcast rights. The additional revenue streams Ohtani unlocks could push his true value north of $40 million per year.
Revenue Generation: Beyond the Baseball Diamond
Signing Ohtani is about more than just adding wins; he represents a chance to significantly expand revenue opportunities on several fronts.
Ohtani’s jersey sales already rank among the MLB’s top sellers, reflecting his popularity at home and abroad. Industry analysts estimate his merchandise sales could increase by 30-40% for the team that signs him next. This forecast aligns with the boosts seen by other marquee free agent signings like Bryce Harper to the Phillies in 2019.
Local ticket sales and viewership also stand to rise. Regional sports networks see 10-20% viewership jumps when superstar players join the home team. Ohtani's presence could have an even more pronounced effect given his international appeal.
The Costs: What Teams Will Need to Consider
Signing Ohtani will not come cheap. He will likely command the largest contract in MLB history, surpassing Mike Trout's $426.5 million deal with the Angels. The bidding war for Ohtani’s services could see offers approach or even exceed $500 million.
This represents a massive upfront cost, which could limit some small-market teams. Complicating matters is Ohtani’s increased injury risk as a two-way player. Teams will need to weigh this uncertainty against Ohtani’s potential to catalyze revenue growth.
The International Factor: Boosting Global Appeal
As MLB pushes to expand its global brand, Ohtani represents the ideal ambassador. His popularity in Japan cannot be overstated; networks like NHK carry all his at-bats live even when he’s playing on the road.
“Ohtani’s impact in Japan cannot be quantified,” notes one NPB executive. “He attracts an entirely different audience to baseball.”
The team that signs Ohtani could see broadcast rights and sponsorship deals in Japan balloon by tens of millions of dollars per year. This partly explains why all 30 MLB teams sent scouts to evaluate Ohtani when he first arrived from Japan in 2017.
The Ohtani Effect: Team Branding and Long-Term Value
The “Ohtani Effect” refers to the overall elevation signing him can provide to a team’s brand and valuation. Industry analysts point to transformative free agent signings like LeBron James to the Lakers as a comparable case study.
Regional interest, ticket sales, sponsorship deals, and franchise valuation all rose substantially when the Lakers signed James in 2018. Ohtani’s two-way excellence and global fame could have a similar amplifying effect for his future MLB club.
Conclusion
Shohei Ohtani's impending free agency represents a truly exceptional moment in baseball history. His unmatched skillset as both an ace pitcher and middle-of-the-order slugger, paired with his international fame, make him a franchise-altering player. While the upfront cost of signing Ohtani will be steep, the potential returns in on-field performance, global branding, and years of sustained revenue growth are enormous. For one lucky MLB franchise, meeting Ohtani's price in 2024 could transform far more than the win column.
REFERENCES
Maury Brown, "Here's How Much Shohei Ohtani Would Make Annually on Open Market." Forbes, November 15, 2021.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2021/11/15/heres-how-much-shohei-ohtani-would-make-annually-on-open-market/?sh=24d7efdb5ef9Baseball Reference, "Shohei Ohtani Statistics and History."
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtmlDarren Rovell, “Shohei Ohtani Jersey Sales Among MLB’s Best Sellers.” Action Network, May 17, 2021.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/shohei-ohtani-jersey-sales-mlb-top-sellerMaury Brown, “MLB Sees Record $10.7 Billion in Revenues for 2019.” Forbes, December 21, 2020.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2020/12/21/mlb-sees-record-107-billion-in-revenues-for-2019/Ben Clemens, “Putting a Dollar Value on Ohtani’s Rare Skills.” FanGraphs, November 24, 2021.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-ohtanis-rare-skills/
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