My picks for the UFC fights of October 22, 2022

Current ROI is negative: -23.88% (AWFUL)
MMA record keeping started on: Mar 2, 2019
Total units risked so far (always flat 1 unit): 67
Total units won or loss so far: -16 units
Current capping record and negative ROI: (34-30-2), -23.88% (AWFUL)

*I cap mostly for fun. I currently have a negative ROI with my sports capping.

Charles Oliveira (2.70) vs Islam Makhachev (1.51)

The first thing that stands out to me about this fight is how much of a crazy underdog Oliveira is for this fight. It's like all his previous wins means nothing and he can't get respect as the champion or something. It's friggin' weird to me the odds. Yes I know Oliveira has gotten rocked in most of his title defenses before mounting a comeback win but come on. He is the champion and he's won 11 straight fights. He shouldn't be this big of an underdog.

Makhachev has the better overall record win percentage wise as he has far less losses at 11-1 with a 10 fight win streak in the UFC. I'd say he's the stronger fighter strengthwise and likely has better wrestling. He's got good power with his punches too though he mostly fights like Khabib preferring to take it to the ground for GnP.

Oliveira's jiu-jitsu though is as legit as it comes as he holds the UFC record for submission wins. His stand up is almost as good as his jiu-jitsu at this point as he's won many of his title defenses with TKOs.

The way I see this fight going is Oliveira's jiu-jitsu neutralizing Makhachev's wrestling. I think Oliveira might get rocked but if he can weather the storm, then he can get a win via TKO or submission. I'm leaning towards him knocking down Makhachev with a punch or kick followed by him quickly leaping on his opponent and getting a submission or TKO win.

My pick is the Charles Oliveira moneyline.

Fight starts in a few hours.