Burnley v Wolves Prediction - Battle of the slow starters

I think it'd be fair to say that both these clubs could lay claim to having had a successful season.

Burnley for their part are now well on their way to at least a top-half finish and if they can win a couple of their remaining games then a spot in the Europa League is not out of the equation. Delivering European football 2 years out of the last 3 with a squad put together on a relative shoestring budget would be some achievement by Sean Dyche.

Why isn't he linked with bigger jobs? Well, I just don't think his style of football is appreciated amongst the footballing elite but god damn it is effective!

Wolves meanwhile are still theoretically in the hunt for a Champions League spot and will have been heartened by Leicester and Man Utd's recent slips but in reality, the back to back defeats to Arsenal and Sheffield United mean they have to win their last 3 and hope for other results to go their way to take a seat at Europe's top table.

However, while things overall are looking rosy for these sides, at times this season and in particular during matches that hasn't always been the case. For example, take a look at the Premier League table as it would be if matches finished at half-time.

The table shows results if games finished at half time

As you can see, if Premier League games only lasted 45mins then this wouldn't be a battle between 2 sides with European ambitions, it would be a relegation 6 pointer!

As the graphic also demonstrates, today's fixture sees 2 teams who generally struggle to score in the first 45mins. Crystal Palace (10) actually have the worst 1st half scoring record in the Premier League this season but these 2 are taking the silver and bronze medal positions in that regards so far.

I guess you can view this stat from 2 standpoints.

One would be the glass-half-empty approach that these 2 sides are really slow starters in matches and had they have been able to get out of the blocks a bit sooner, both could be challenging that much higher up the league.

The other would be the glass-half-full approach which would commend both teams for their resilience and the ability to turn results in their favour. Wolves have won a league-high 21 points from losing positions this season and both are exceptionally fit and well-managed squads with a never say die attitude.

Defensive stability is a major feature of how both sides set-up.

Wolves have the best expected goals against stats (34.26) in the league this season so I would be surprised if the home side got much change from them tonight. Accept it would appear in the first 15mins of a match where Wolves have conceded 9 of their total 37 goals so far this season - a record high in the Premier League this year.

1st half v 2nd half records of both teams

It's obviously an area that Nuno Espírito Santo will be concerned about but it is noticeable that they haven't conceded in the first 15mins since the league restarted and in fact, they conceded only once in the first half in their last 6 matches

Where Burnley are usually dangerous and a stat that I've highlighted in previous blogs, is scoring from set-pieces and from working the ball into the 6-yard box/penalty area. The Claret and Blues may not play expansive football but they are efficient. Equally, Wolves look capable of cancelling this threat out and have only conceded 3 times from set-plays on their travels this year.

In other words, what we have here is a game with 2 sides who set-up from the back, start slowly and whose styles naturally cancel each other out. Their previous 3 Premier League matches have all been low scoring affairs so a bet on under 2.5 goals is probably a good one but I fancy something with slightly longer odds that builds even further on the fact that these 2 sides are both shot-shy in the 1st half of games.

Prediction: Half-time score nil-nil @2.41 or better