Chelsea v Norwich Prediction - Thanks for the laughs Norwich

Norwich has given the world so many laughs, from the brilliance of Alan Patridge to the more recent efforts of its football club in allowing Michail Antonio to score 4 goals in a single match - comedy gold!

I don't blame the Norwich board for not wanting to risk the financial stability of the club in making big money signings that would not have provided a guarantee of Premier League safety but at the same time, it appears the message from the top that

We're ok going back down

has been interrupted by the squad as

We don't need to try and stay up then

I doubt that playing in front of empty stadiums helps a side in a situation like Norwich and of course, there was no opportunity for Delia Smith to provide a "stirring" speech to the fans "whiping" them up into a frenzy (all other cooking-related puns will be rewarded in the comments section).

The fact is that Norwich are short on quality and they were naive enough to think that their style of play that made them a success in the Championship would lend itself to the Premier League. It didn't and therefore they are going back down for the 5th time in the clubs history - a Premier League record.

Speaking of unenviable Premier League records, Norwich are on the verge of setting another one if they can't score in this match or their final away game of the season at the Ethiad. The record for least away goals in a season currently stands at 8 by the truly dreadful Derby side of 07/08 who managed a record low points tally of 11 that year.

Given that Man City aren't just beating teams at home but annihilating them then surely this game represents the Canaries best hope of avoiding that record. Equally, Chelsea have had a fairly disappointing season at Stamford Bridge which could yet cost them a spot in the Champions League if they don't rectify that problem tonight.

The Blues have the joint 3rd lowest points haul from home matches in the top half of the table with only Burnley and Wolves having had less success in their own backyards this season. However, when you dig down a little deeper at the stats you can see that the problem is less Chelsea's performances at home as it is in delivering the result that their efforts deserve.

Premier League home records based on expected points. Chelsea have the 3rd best record in that respect and the 2nd best defence yet their actual results have lead to a 9.73 point variance

Looking at the expected points table, Chelsea's record this year is comparable to that of champions Liverpool who only lost their 100% home record last weekend. However, what we can also see on the image above is the vast difference between expected goals (for and against) and expected points v the actual results. No other team is anywhere close to this kind of discrepancy in terms of performance v points either home or away this season.

If we drill down again and look at individual performances in this respect, we see the wastefulness of Chelsea's number 1 striker Tammy Abraham a point that @josediccus considered in a recent post . 14 goals in your debut league season is a very good effort from the 22-year-old but it is clear that his finishing is not at the kind of level required for Chelsea to push on and challenge for the title. No player above Tammy Abraham in the scoring charts has been so wasteful when comparing expected goals v actual goals.

The chart shows the difference between actual goals and expected goals. Jamie Vardy's expected tally is 17.41 which is similar to Abraham's 17.17. However, Vardy has scored 23 times v Abraham's 14

This stat is undoubtedly why Chelsea have splashed out on German striker Timo Werner who for those interested finished the Bundesliga season with 28 actual goals and an expected goals tally of 23.45. His +4.55 would put him in the same category of striker as Vardy, Aubameyang and Ings i.e. a player that not only scores the goals expected of him as a result of the team's efforts but produces the occasional bit of magic as well.

At the other end, Chelsea have managed just 7 clean sheets all season and while their current transfer activity seems to be aimed at improving their attacking options you would feel that more investment is needed in defence if they are to challenge for the title next year. It is often the little 1 or 2 percentages here and there that separate the champions from the challengers.

Chelsea's generosity at home this season is probably what is keeping some of the odds a little higher than you might expect for what is 3rd v last. However, I just can't see this Norwich side picking themselves up and providing stiff opposition following 7 straight defeats since the league restarted. I also think Lampard will be looking for a reaction from his side following a really poor showing at Sheffield United last time out. A win tonight would take the home side 4 points clear of Man Utd in 5th place and put them in prime position for a Champions League spot next year.

Prediction: Chelsea to win to nil @1.71

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