IPL 2022 GT vs RCB Preview - In cricket you make your own luck

Key match stats GT vs RCB

Pitch Stats – Brabourne Stadium

Average first innings score: 175
Average first innings winning score: 203
Average powerplay score: 53
Win % batting 1st vs batting 2nd: 40% / 60%

Team form GT vs RCB
GT – WWWWL
RCB – LLWWL
Recent meetings: n/a

GT vs RCB Preview

I talk to lots of people about the IPL whether in-person or in online forums and many of them have expressed over the last few weeks how they feel Gujarat are a "lucky" team in recording a record of played 8 won 7.

I have to say that I'm not quite sure I agree or at least maybe I don't understand what luck has to do with it. Yes, they've certainly taken multiple games right down to the wire including their last ball victory over Sunrisers last time out but luck has nothing to do with those wins. Instead it's the ability to deliver in the big moments that is what separates champions from challengers in any sport you'd care to watch.

What I think is more important to focus on with this Gujarat side are the undoubted weaknesses that still remain and which might ultimately play a much bigger part than something as fickle as luck in their pursuit of an IPL title at the first time of trying.

The top order is still a concern despite a good effort from Wriddhiman Saha in their last match and the balance of the team has been impacted by Hardik Pandya's inability to bowl.

In fact, while Gujarat continue to have a very strong core bowling attack, going into any match with just 5 recognised bowlers is a risk. We've seen for example Lockie Ferguson take some tap in a couple of the games which is not unexpected particularly given the quality of the pitches and the relatively short boundaries at a couple of the grounds.

As a captain, what Hardik Pandya ideally needs is another bowler to at least give him the option of not needing to bowl out his core attack if it simply isn't their day!

We may well see later in the tournament that it's these gaps in the Gujarat team that cost them more than any change in fortune does.

As for RCB, well their performances are being impacted by major problems at the top of the order which they are struggling to address.

I suggested in my previous blog on Bangalore that they might consider dropping Rawat given his inability to rotate the strike in the powerplay and they did that only to promote the under pressure Virat Kohli, a player in such bad form that he looks like he's not sure which end of the bat to hold!

I've seen so many theories about what Kohli should do to remedy the problem including a popular one being espoused by the likes of Ian Bishop that Kohli should just tee off and go into ultra-aggressive mode!

Really? I mean that's never been his game before so why would it succeed now at a stage of his career where he can't buy a run?

You can tell that Bishop was a bowler if that's the kind of advice he'd give one of the best batsmen of the modern era. It'd be the equivalent of Kohli advising Bishop to just bowl left-arm if you don't think the ball's coming out well. Face palm.

I've written before on the conditions that are required for Kohli to succeed as an opener in T20 cricket and to summarise they require him to face 15-20 balls at a relatively slow strike rate. The real question then is can RCB afford to have him take that approach given that they now have the least effective powerplay in IPL 2022?

run rate of every team in the powerplay during IPL 2022

If it's an in-form Kohli who is going to go on through the gears and build a substantial innings then I'd say yes but in his current form it's difficult to have confidence that he won't just chew-up those 15-20 balls and then get out, piling pressure onto the middle and lower order to up the scoring.

The other big consideration for this match is what kind of pitch will we get at the Brabourne?

You can see from the stats above that a winning score batting first has required teams to post totals in excess of 200. However, in the last 2 games here the side batting first have been skittled out for 68 (RCB vs SRH) and 115 (PBKS vs DC).

My feeling is that this is still a batsmen's wicket and those were just poor performances. Equally, being a day match there will be less advantage to chasing so getting runs on the board will be crucial.

GT vs RCB head to head

RCB bowling vs GT batting

GT will be hoping that Shubman Gill can rediscover the form he had earlier in the season at a venue where he made 96 from his only previous visit here.

In the game against SRH, I turned to my friend who was watching the game with me and said to him that Umran Malik is too quick for this guy. In fact, you could actually see the fear in Gill's eyes as Malik was running in and it was no surprise that next ball he was bowled trying to play a big shot while backing well away from a 150kmph delivery. He won't find quite that level of pace in this game but he is up against a very competent RCB seam attack.

Mohammed Siraj vs Shubman Gill T20 head to head

So far Gill's record against the likes of Mohammed Siraj is positive which is a bonus for GT particularly considering that Saha's is not. He's been dismissed twice by Siraj from 18 deliveries and has a similarly poor record against Harshal Patel.

Of course, GT's real strength this season has been at the back end of the innings where the likes of Tewatia, Miller and Rashid Khan have all made match winning contributions with the bat.

Combined death over batting stats for Miller, Tewatia and Rashid Khan

Conversely RCB have been struggling at the back end with the ball with only the much maligned Mumbai Indians bowling attack going for more runs at the death than them while RCB themselves have taken the fewest wickets in the same period.

Team	Bowling economy at the death	Total wickets taken at the death
MI	12.4	15
RCB	11.5	11
CSK	11.2	16

Teams conceding more than 11 an over at the death during IPL 2022

The real key for RCB will be to take wickets upfront and then continue to take them through the middle period (something I highlighted in previous blogs has been a real strength for them this season). If they can get a couple of those big hitters in earlier than GT would like then they'll stand a chance of restricting their impact.

GT Bowling vs RCB batting

You fear that things aren't going to get any easier for Virat Kohli against this Gujarat attack. In this game he'll come head to head with Mohammed Shami, who has taken more wickets in the powerplay (8) than any other bowler so far in IPL 2022 and who has an exceptionally good record against his international teammate.

Mohammed Shami vs Kohli T20 head to head

It was noticeable in their previous match that the SRH batsmen really looked to attack Rashid Khan and Lockie Ferguson in the middle overs and as noted above that put a 5 man bowling attack under significant pressure. Can RCB achieve the same here?

Ferguson vs Kohli and du Pless combined head to head stats

Well a couple of their players have certainly scored freely off Ferguson in past encounters as the stats above show but they've been less inclined to go after the wrist spinner with both Kohli and du Plessis scoring at a strike rate of well under a 100 and even Glen Maxwell whose primary role in the side is to attack the slow bowler taking a more conservative approach against the Afghan superstar.

Rashid Khan vs Maxwell T20 head to head

All stats used in this blog are from my own database. Images are my own with the exception of player profiles and background images which are used under a creative commons license or otherwise royalty free