IPL 2023 MI vs GT Preview - Can Mumbai continue to dominate at the Wankhede?

Key match stats

Pitch Stats – Wankhede Stadium

Average first innings score: 193
Average first innings winning score: 214
Average powerplay score: 49
Win % batting 1st vs batting 2nd: 20% / 80%

Team form MI vs GT

MI: WLWWL
GT: WWLWW

Recent meetings: GT won by 55 runs

Preview MI vs GT

With competitors falling by the way side, Gujarat Titans are all but guaranteed a top 2 finish and would make it a mathematical certainty with a win here over 3rd placed Mumbai Indians.

Since their slip up against Delhi Capitals, the reigning champions have been ruthless against Rajasthan and Lucknow sides who were simply blown out of the water by the Titan's superior strength with both bat and ball.

In recent blogs, I raised the question of whether Hardik Pandya could refocus his team after that loss vs Delhi and whether GT had a problem with Saha at the top of the order. Both those concerns have been put to bed and it is looking increasingly likely that the Titans will make it 2 finals in a row - remember that the final itself is in Ahmedabad essentially giving Gujarat home advantage!

As for Mumbai, they continue to demonstrate their batting strength particularly here at the Wankhede where no score looks out of reach. Despite their return to form, MI's path to the playoffs is less certain and it's likely that they will need to win 2 of their last 3 games to offset their poor net run rate which at the moment is significantly lower than the 3 sides below them.

Team	Net Run Rate
RR	+0.388
LSG	+0.294
KKR	-0.079
MI	-0.255
RCB	-0.345
PBKS	-0.441

Net Run rate of sides challenging for playoffs

The likes of Rajasthan and Lucknow will certainly be cheering on the Titans in this game. For them, 7 wins might well be enough to get through considering their superior NRR and Lucknow's point from the rained off match against LSG, providing MI slip-up!

Home advantage has been massive a factor for Mumbai in their recent return to form and so this game plus their closing fixture against SRH, also being played at the Wankhede, look their best chance of securing a top 4 finish.

Team	Wins at home	Wins away
CSK	4	3
DC	2	2
GT	3	5
KKR	2	3
LSG	2	3
MI	3	3
PBKS	1	4
RR	2	3
RCB	3	2
SRH	1	3

Most wins at home vs most wins away in IPL 2023

However, they come against a GT side who have been imperious on the road during IPL 2023, with 5 wins out 5! In fact, the stats above show that the return to home and away fixtures during the round robin stage hasn't to date lead to the much expect 'home pitch advantage' with most sides winning more games away from their home venue.

I guess the fact that we've had 3 seasons where teams have been playing at neutral venues, including outside of India, means that for most of the players appearing in IPL 2023, their home venues don't yet feel like home! It'll be interesting to see if these stats change over the next couple of seasons as we start to see sides being built for specific conditions.

Both these teams have also developed a reputation for winning batting 2nd. GT have won 5 out of 6 this season when chasing, following a similar pattern from IPL 2022. Meanwhile 5 out of MI's 6 wins in IPL have come batting second. The last team to successfully defend a total against Mumbai were Gujarat Titans...

MI vs GT head to head

GT bowling vs MI batting

There are many things to admire about this Gujarat side but one of their real strengths this season and last has been their fast bowling unit which gives them wicket taking options throughout the 20 overs.

Mohammed Shami IPL bowling stats at the Wankhede

There is enough pace and a little bit of movement in this Wankhede pitch to suggest that Gujarat's opening bowlers will be a handful once again. With Mohammed Shami striking once every 2 overs in previous visits and Hardik Pandya knowing these conditions like the back of his hand, MI are going to have to work very hard to resist the GT new ball attack.

Of course, while GT have some form bowlers, MI have arguably the form batsmen in the tournament right now. Sky has looked almost impossible to bowl to at times in his recent innings, with his variety of shots and strength against all forms of bowling poseing captains a real headache.

Sky T20 career record vs left-arm pace

If there is one weakness that GT could look to exploit, perhaps it's against left-arm bowlers. Sky averages just 27 against left-arm pace and Josh Little has dismissed him before in T20 cricket while in the game earlier in the season between these 2 franchises, it was the left-arm wrist spin of Noor Ahmed that did the job.

MI bowling vs GT batting

Mumbai will be confident of doing some damage up front themselves particularly when considering the awful record that a few of Titans batsmen have at the Wankhede.

Shubman Gill IPL batting stats at the Wankhede

By contrast, Gill's opening partner in Saha averages 70 at the Wankhede with a strike rate of 140+ and will be looking to pick-up where he left-off against LSG.

Jason Berendorff represents almost all that is left of what was looking like a very strong pace attack for MI this year. The big left-armer did some early damage against RCB and is well suited to the conditions here at the Wankhede.

Behrendorff IPL bowling stats at the Wankhede

MI did well in that game to strike early and then also pull things around at the back end of the innings. However, the GT middle order is significantly stronger than RCB's. The Titans are also scoring more runs at the death that any other side in the competition this year, while MI have the worst economy rate during the same phase of the game.

We saw the last time that these 2 sides met that despite a good start with the ball by MI the added strength of the Gujarat middle order was ultimately too much. While much has been made of the batting power of Mumbai in resent games, I do feel that their bowlers will need to step up in this game against significantly stronger opposition.

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All stats used in this blog are from my own databases which are freely accessible below
IPL head to head player stats
IPL player stats by venue
IPL stadium statistics.
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