Matchday Matrix Round 4

We're rattling through the rounds as we reach the 4th edition of the Matchday Matrix Contest.

We thought yesterday's matches would produce some tough results to call and so it proved for many. However, a perfect score could have made from the set of outcomes. Once again, no could quite nail it!

Straight onto today's 5 games which include fixtures from a couple of new leagues for MM players to consider.

Everton v Man City

Arsenal have taken their opportunities to reestablish a lead at the top of the Premier League and heap the pressure back on Pep's men.

Everton certainly won't rollover for City but they have lost their last 2 and their home form in their first season at the new stadium has been patchy at best. City meanwhile are unbeaten on the road in their last 6 having won to nil in their last 2 away trips.

In fact City won the corresponding fixture last season 2-0 and are on an 8 match winning streak against the Toffees away from home. It puts a draw out as long as odds of 4.33

David Moyes' side have only kept 6 clean sheets at home this season so you'd expect they will need to score to get something from this game. They have achieved that feat in 9 out of 10 home games in 2026. BTTS is 1.75 while over 2.5 goals is 1.60.

Neither side has generated a huge number of corners this season with just over a third of games played by each club breaching the 10.5 mark.

Card wise, City didn't see a single yellow produced in their last league match away at Burnley (that was more like friendly). They may look for the same kind of controlled win again here. Baring a late flurry of cards in the last game against West Ham, Everton matches similarly don't tend to generate huge numbers of bookings.

Hearts v Rangers

Massive game at the top of the SPL as both these teams look to respond to Celtic's win against Hibs yesterday which drew them level on points with the home team.

Rangers lost their last game 2-3 to Motherwell (a first defeat in 17) and if recent results are any indication, this game should have more goals. There have been 25 of them in Rangers last 4 matches alone!

The last game between these 2 in February finished 4-2 to Rangers while Hearts won 2-1 back in December.

However, the bookies are lukewarm on this one on the BTTS and over 2.5 goals fronts, offering 1.63 and 1.73 respectively which is perhaps a reflection of the significance of the game and an expectation that neither side can afford a defeat.

Hearts' title challenge has been maintained thanks to their excellent record against the Old Firm. They've already racked up 4 wins against Rangers and Celtic this season, only Sir Alex Ferguson's Aberdeen sides of the 70s & 80s has managed 5 in a season against the traditional Scottish powerhouses. However, a draw at 3.4 might not be a bad bet.

The corner market is odds of 1.95 for 10.5 or over. That's about right for these 2 sides given their stats across the season to date.

However, the real valuable is surely in the yellow card market. With so much resting on this match and a pumped up home crowd at Tynecastle then I think we can expect a few tackles to be flying in from both sides!

Sevilla v Real Sociedad

Desperate times for Sevilla as they currently sit 18th in La Liga, 2 points from safety with this one of fives matches still to play.

Sociedad are currently very mid-table - 11 wins, 10 draws, 12 losses. Goals for 52, Goals against 52. However, it continues to be so tight in the mid portion of La Liga that a decent run in May could easily see them snatch 6th spot and a European place.

Goals could be expected simply on the basis that neither side has a good record of stopping the opposition from scoring. Sevilla have failed to do so in their last 8 games while 7 out Sociedad's last 8 in La Liga have seen them unable to keep a clean sheet.

At the same time, Sociedad have only failed to score in 1 game in all competitions during 2026 which does make the odds of BTTS at 1.75 quite generous. Over 2.5 goals is out at 1.95.

Corner wise, over 10.5 is out at odds of 2.25 again perhaps slightly long on the basis that Sociedad's attacking intent in matches has seen then deliver on average games with 10.52 corners this season.

Card wise, the somewhat chaotic nature of Sociedad matches does seem to attract them. Their last 4 La Liga games have produced 9, 9, 6 and 5 yellows respectively plus a couple of reds thrown in for good measure. Sevilla too have comfortably breached the 3.5 mark in their last 4 matches.

The draw outcome, being almost always the longest odds that player's have to contend with, is relatively low in this one at 3.2. It might be a good option if you can't find an outcome in the other 4 that you fancy in this one.

Roma v Fiorentina

A win for Roma all but guarantees them European football but perhaps more importantly puts them firmly in the race for a Champions League spot. A win for Fiorentina all but guarantees their continued participation in the top flight.

Our 3 Serie A matches in previous rounds have produced just 5 goals for MM players so far. Will this one be any different?

The bookies aren't convinced with odds of 1.85 on both over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets.

They also place Roma as firm favourites to win this game with a draw out at 3.80. On the surface, with it being 6th vs 15th, that might seem a fair reflection. However, the Viola are one of the form teams in Italy at the moment with no defeat in their last 7 Serie A matches. They are also the league's draw specialists with 13 of them to date this season.

Corners looks like an outcome to avoid on this one. Odds out at 3.10 for over 10.5 of them.

3 out of Fiorentina's last 4 games have finished with over 3.5 yellows including this game against Hellas Verona which got a bit tetchy towards the end

However, none of Roma's last 3 games in Serie A breached the 3.5 mark leaving players with a bit of a conundrum with the Italian matches once again.

Bodø / Glimt v Molde

Last but not least we head over to Norway for a game at the club that has put Norwegian club football on the map in recent seasons.

As with other Scandinavian leagues, this one is really just getting going with it being the 7th game of the season for both.

Having had a shaky start, Bodo have won their last 3 in the league with a combined 10-0 aggregate. We know from their European exploits how effective they are on their plastic pitch. They haven't lost a domestic fixture here since June last year.

As a result the bookies like the idea of a dominant home win here with odds on the draw way out at 5.5 while over 2.5 goals are as short as 1.30 and BTTS at 1.50.

Bodo's attacking play has seen them average 7.7 corners for a game and so even money on 10.5 corners total isn't a bad bet.

Bodo themselves have picked up just 1 yellow card in their last 3 games. Molde did start the season with some disciplinary issues - over 3.5 cards in their first 4 matches and 2 sendings off in the same period. However, they appear to have calmed down more recently with under 3.5 cards in their last 2.

Matchday Matrix Standings

I get the feeling that no one really wants to win this contest!

The top 2 after the first couple of rounds both delivered 3 points yesterday. Meanwhile @blanchy and @doombot75 who were languishing on 6 points each after 2 rounds, doubled their total score yesterday.

It means there is just 3 points separating the top 10.

Place	Account	Previous Round Score	Total Points
1	@uwelang	5	15
1	@twicejoy-sports	5	15
3	@sportsgeek	3	14
3	@workingdad	3	14
3	@danideuder	5	14
3	@zusi78	5	14
7	@talesfrmthecrypt	4	13
7	@caspermoeller89	5	13
9	@blanchy	6	12
10	@doombot75	6	12
11	@dirtyleeds	2	9
12	@niallon11	0	6

It's all to play for. Picks for Round 4 close at 6:30pm (BST) today!