The January Transfer Window - What the big name targets can bring to the Premier League?

As fireworks lit up the skies across the world heralding the beginning of a new year it also signalled the re-opening of the January transfer window for clubs across Europe.

This blog will seek to assess some of the prime targets that Premier League clubs are chasing this January and how they might impact those sides should they join.

I make no assertions to the likelihood of these deals being done. January is a notoriously tough time to get a deal over the line but there are a couple of factors which do suggest that we'll be in for a busy month.

Image source 1 2 shared under CC license

Firstly, the World Cup has allowed clubs some time away from the weekly grind of training and matches to assess their squads and at least begin to plan transfer strategies.

Secondly, is the competition this year for a Champions League spot with the re-emergence of Arsenal and Manchester United, coupled with a slip in standards from Chelsea and Liverpool and the fantastic form of Newcastle making this one of the most competitive seasons we've seen for a while.

Chelsea look likely to double down on their record summer spending with a number of other high-profile buys this January while Liverpool have already signed Cody Gakpo to add to their impressive array of attacking talent. It seems unlikely then that the other clubs in the top third of the league won't respond to that activity and bring in their own reinforcements over the next month.

At the other end of the table, the likes of Bournemouth, Wolves and Southampton have all appointed new managers who you would expect would want to bring in at least a couple of new players. Again, new Wolves boss Julen Lopetegui has already moved to secure the big money signing of Matheus Cunha and it's expected that he won't be the only transfer arriving at Molineux this month.

Then we have a couple of larger clubs in Everton and West Ham who are flirting with the relegation zone. Will they try and spend their way out of trouble? David Moyes had a sizeable kitty in the summer but several of his big name signings have failed to settle in East London, while Everton boss Frank Lampard has already admitted that he has a very limited budget to work with.

Mykhaylo Mudryk

Reports suggest Arsenal have already bid somewhere in the region of £55 million for the young Ukrainian forward but that Shakhtar are holding out for significantly more. It's worth remembering that Shakhtar have done well at extracting higher than market value from many of the young Brazilian stars they shipped onto the Premier League in the past.

What's more, FIFA's current rules around foreign players in the Ukrainian league mean that's it's very difficult for Shakhtar and other Ukrainian sides to turn a profit from sales of non-Ukrainian players which also means that Mudryk will come with an added premium.

Certainly Mudryk's underlying stats are impressive with 0.31 goals per 90mins played and 0.42 assists. Within the current Arsenal side only the injured Gabriel Jesus has a better goal involvement per 90mins record (0.78).

It should however be noted that Mudrky's numbers come from a relatively small sample size of 49 matches and 33 starts and that most of them have come in the Ukrainian Premier League. I can't say I've ever watched a match in the Ukrainian Premier League but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it's not at the same standard as the Premier League, particularly these days with the aforementioned FIFA ruling on foreign players essentially meaning that most of the overseas talent have departed the war torn country.

Mudryk and Shakhtar have had success in this year's Champions League notably shocking RB Leipzig at home with a 4-1 victory and holding Real Madrid to a draw. Disappointingly, they failed to follow those displays up with victory against bottom placed Celtic and ultimately slipped into the Europa League.

Those games against Leipzig and Madrid were built on solid defence and fast counter attacking play with Mudrky's pace a key factor in the outcome. The question is, how effective might he be in an Arsenal team that generally plays on the front foot and with a majority of possession?

His stats from the Champions League certainly suggest their would need to be a period of adjustment. He attempted an average of just 26 passes per 90 mins which shows that he was generally not involved in the team's build-up play. Comparatively, Bukayo Saka has attempted an average of 38 passes per 90mins this season.

Then there is the defensive element, with Arsenal favouring a high-press which has worked very well for them this season in turning the ball over quickly and often within the opposition half.

Total blocks, interceptions, tackles and clearances per 90mins. The 3 current Arsenal player stats based on all EPL games this season while Mudrky on CL only

Clearly, Mudrky has been playing in a different system but he'd need to up his output significantly to match the numbers of Arsenal's first choice front 3.

João Félix

A player who has been linked with several Premier League clubs this window, including Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal. Having moved to Atletico Madrid for over £100 million in 2019, he's failed to really live up to the hype with 34 goals in 134 appearances. His current market value is down to £50 million despite the fact that he still has 3 and a half years left on his 7 year deal. Both permanent and loan deals have been mooted.

The fact that he's only appeared in Diego Simeone's starting XI in La Liga 6 times this season and just once since September suggests that he is surplus to requirements but is he really what those 3 clubs need?

Most of his career to date has been played as a second striker, playing off a more orthodox number 9. He's only lead the line in his own right 32 times in his career to date, scoring 12 goals in the process.

Naturally, he would be better suited in some of the formations that Graham Potter has used with Chelsea for example the 3-4-2-1 that he deployed against Newcastle just before the World Cup break but as we saw from Chelsea against Bournemouth, they might be better suited to playing a 4-3-3 formation which is very much the kind of shape that both United and Arsenal favour. In that sort of system, you could potentially play him as a false 9 and certainly he has some of the attributes necessary to deliver in that position.

Lets compare some of his key career stats to the players already on the books of those 3 clubs

stats per 90mins played across entire career

For me, what is most noticable is that despite having the level highest goal involvements per 90 mins (goals + assists) he also has significantly fewer touches in the box every game again, suggesting that he's not the type of player to lead the line. All 3 Premier League clubs are ideally looking for a player who can be the focal point of their attacks.

Chelsea have Aubameyang and Havertz. The former looks well past his best while Felix and Havertz underlying stats are very similar and neither you would say is a classical number 9 so while Felix would add depth to the Chelsea squad he doesn't really improve the managers options when it comes to the style of play or type of player at his disposal.

For United, you'd assume that he'd be in competition primarily with Antony Martial and while the French forward has done well this season when he's been fit, there is always a question mark about how many games he can play. With the departure of Ronaldo, there is definitely a need for United to bring in reinforcements and Joao Felix's attributes are certainly more suited to the style of play than his Portugese team mate could offer.

A transfer to United makes most sense but as noted above, I would still have concerns over his ability to lead the line. He's not an out and out replacement for Martial and United will have to adapt their shape to accommodate him.

Enzo Fernandez

It's no major surprise that several of the recently crowned World Champions squad are linked with moves this January. Perhaps the biggest potential deal is the possibility of Enzo Fernandez moving to the Premier League with the Benfica midfielder linked with both Chelsea and Liverpool. With a fee in excess of £100 million being muted it would appear to rule the Reds out of the running with Chelsea appearing happy to splash the cash once again following record expenditure this summer.

His performances in the World Cup showed that he is both a combative and creative midfielder. His 3.51 average tackles per 90 mins was one of the best returns of any midfielder at the World Cup while he also ranked highly on total passes and shot creating actions per match too.

Chelsea already have plenty of midfield options but it would be fair to say that most of their star players in that position have entered the later parts of their career. Indeed, both Kante and Jorginho also have contracts which end this summer and so Chelsea have a decision to make as to whether to keep one or both of those players or invest in a younger replacement. If reports in the media are to be believed then they would appear to be aggressively pursuing the later option.

Lets compare his stats against Chelsea's current midfield options

Stats per 90mins across entire career

Immediately, you can see his creative output is significantly superior to anything Chelsea currently have on their books and while his defensive stats don't quite match those of Kante (few do) his numbers are still very good.

What he doesn't do, as indicated by the numbers above, is really drive forward with the ball from midfield. For Argentina, he benefits from playing alongside the likes of De Paul (2.10 successful dribbles per 90mins across his career) and Mac Allister (top 70 percentile for successful dribbles in the World Cup) not to mention of course Lionel Messi. Beyond Kovacic, Chelsea don't really possess a player who can break the lines. Mason Mount, the more attacking option in Chelsea's midfield, only completes just over 1 successful dribble per 90mins across his career.

At Benfica, he plays as part of a double pivot in midfield in what is a very uniform 4-2-3-1 formation. It would be interesting to see how he adapts to playing for Graham Potter who tends to be more flexible with his team's shape and tactics.

For me, Fernandez could be a great acquisition for Chelsea, if they can pair him with a midfielder who does what he doesn't, namely breaking the lines between midfield and defence not to mention improving the sides forward options. At Benfica, Fernandez has benefited from playing alongside goal scorers like of Darwin Nunez and Gonçalo Ramos as well as Rafa Silva who generally plays off that out and out striker to great effect. Chelsea's long hunt for an effective number 9 is well documented and the impact of any midfielder they bring will be limited until they solve that standing problem.