Which Premier League clubs are set to be most impacted by the Africa Cup of Nations?

The Africa Cup of Nations has long been a source of potential club vs country conflict coming as it does slap bang in the middle of the European football season.

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The bi-annual competition is set to be hosted in Cameroon during January and February 2022 having previously been postponed from 2021 as a result of both the Covid-19 pandemic and more general concerns about the West African nation's preparadness to host the tournament.

Some 33 players currently on the books of Premier League clubs are due to be a part of the competition with pre-tournament favourites such as Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria all heavily represented by players who ply their trade in England's top flight.

A full list of Premier League players who are likely to take part in the Africa Cup of Nations is detailed below.

PlayerNationClubPosition
Edouard MendySenegalChelseaGK
Cheikhou KouyateSenegalCrystal PalaceDEF/MID
Nampalys MendySenegalLeicesterMID
Sadio ManeSenegalLiverpoolFWD
Ismaila SarrSenegalWatfordFWD
Riyad MahrezAlgeriaMan CityFWD
Said BenrahmaAlgeriaWest HamFWD
Moussa DjenepoMaliSouthamptonFWD
Bertrand TraoreBurkino FasoAston VillaFWD
Naby KeitaGuineaLiverpoolMID
Mohamed ElnenyEgyptArsenalMID
Mohamed SalahEgyptLiverpoolFWD
Mahmoud “Trezeguet” HassanEgyptAston VillaFWD
Daniel AmarteyGhanaLeicesterDEF
Thomas ParteyGhanaArsenalMID
Jordan AyewGhanaCrystal PalaceFWD
Marvelous NakambaZimbabweAston VillaMID
Admiral MuskweZimbabweLeicesterFWD
Eric BaillyCote d'IvoireMan UnitedDEF
Willy BolyCote d'IvoireWolvesDEF
Maxwel CornetCote d'IvoireBurnleyMID
Wilfried ZahaCote d'IvoireCrystal PalaceFWD
Nicolas PepeCote d'IvoireArsenalFWD
Adam MasinaMoroccoWatfordDEF
Romain SaissMoroccoWolvesDEF
Imran LouzaMoroccoWatfordMID
William EkongNigeriaWatfordDEF
Frank OnyekaNigeriaBrentfordMID
Wilfred NdidiNigeriaLeicesterMID
Alex IwobiNigeriaEvertonFWD
Kelechi IheanachoNigeriaLeicesterFWD
Emmanuel DennisNigeriaWatfordFWD
Hannibal MejbriTunisiaMan UnitedMID

All Premier League players from squads or provisional squads announced by AFCON sides

With Premier League squads already stretched thin as a result of the growing number of Covid cases in the UK and the busy Christmas schedule to boot the upcoming AFCON seems likely to cause even more distruption to some of the biggest clubs in the world. Below we assess which clubs are likely to be most impacted.

Which Premier League club will have the most players at the Africa Cup of Nations?

Perhaps the easiest measure of which Premier League club will be most impacted is to simply count how many players they will be sending.

Number of players in AFCONPremier League Clubs
5Leicester, Watford
3Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Arsenal,
2Man United, Wolves
1Chelsea, Man City, West Ham, Southampton, Burnley, Brentford, Everton
0Spurs, Brighton, Newcastle, Leeds, Norwich

Leicester and Watford look likely to have a whopping 5 players involved in the Africa Cup of Nations and that could be telling for both clubs ambitions for the remainder of the season.

Leicester's form in general has been patchy as they struggle to meet the high standards of last season which saw them finish 5th in the league and lift the FA Cup. A good run could push them back towards the European spots again while more abject performances are likely to see them slip towards mid-table.

The Foxes will be hit hardest by the loss of Nigeria's Wilfred Ndidi who has established himself as one of the Premier League's best defensive midfielders in recent times. His work rate and tough tackling give the likes of James Maddison and others a license to attack and as a result he will be sorely missed.

Ndidi's natural replacement at Leicester is Nampalys Mendy who will also be travelling to AFCON with Senegal although the impact of his departure is less likely to be felt as he has spent most of the season out with a groin injury. In his place, Leicester have deployed Boubakary Soumaré the former French U21 international who himself could yet choose to represent Senegal in the future.

Leicester's other African contingent includes players who are not first choice picks in the Premier League. Daniel Amartey got some playing time earlier in the season but hasn't played in their last 4 Premier League fixtures while Kelechi Iheanacho generally gives Brendon Rodgers an option off the bench.

Despite losing so many players, one things in Leicester's favour is their fixture list during January with games against Norwich, Burnley and Brighton all represening opportunities to pick up points despite the exodus of players. Indeed, Leiecester will need to find wins from at least 2 of those games as well as hoping that they get their players back quickly and in one piece as February brings fixtures against Liverpool, West Ham and Chelsea as well as a resumption of the Europa League that will surely test the depth of their squad.

While Leicester will have their focus on who's above them in the league, Watford are certainly looking in the other direction. The Hornets are represented by more players of African origin than any other Premier League team and in many ways you could claim they've gotten off lightly by only losing 5 of them to AFCON.

Watford will be hardest hit by the loss of their 2 prime attacking threats in the form of Ismaila Sarr and Emmanuel Dennis (more on those 2 later). Having beaten Manchester United 4-1 in November in what was ultimately the final nail in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's coffin, the Hornets have gone onto lose 4 on the trott.

January brings 2 massive fixtures for Watford with games against 2 of the sides currently below them in the league in Norwich and Newcastle. To lose a group of key players for those 6 pointers would be difficult enough but add to that the fact that both those clubs as well as Leeds don't have any players travelling to Africa this winter and the impact on Watford and their hopes of survival this season look set to be massive!

Which Premier League club will lose the most key players to the African Cup of Nations?

Of course, while some of the players listed above are top performers for their clubs others are at best bench warmers. The table below shows how many key players each Premier League club will use. In this instance, a key player is one who has played 1000 or more minutes of first team football in all competitions during the 2021/22 season

Number of key players in AFCONPremier League Clubs
3Watford, Crystal Palace
2Liverpool, Leicester,
1Arsenal, Wolves, Chelsea, Man City, West Ham

When we cut down the list then to only those players who appear to be key members of their resepective squads the impact to the Premier League as a whole is not as great.

Sides like Aston Villa who are sending 3 players to AFCON will barely miss the likes of Trezeguet and Traore who don't seem to be a part of their manager's immediate plans while Arsenal who will also be represented by 3 players are losing the likes of Elneny and Pepe who have generally been used more in the Gunners run to the semi-finals of the League Cup than they have in the Premier League itself.

While Watford remain high on the list, the other club that looks most likely to be impacted by a loss of players to the African Cup of Nations is Crystal Palace who will lose 3 of their key players in Zaha, Kouyate and Ayew.

Patrick Viera has undoubtedly done a good job with a relatively small squad and budget but with just 1 league win in their last 7 matches it is not an ideal time to be losing players to their international teams.

Which team's goalscoring could be most impacted?

It's noticable that of the Premier League players being represented at the African Cup of Nations, a large proportion are forwards. 45% of all players from the EPL going to AFCON are forwards while that figure rises to 53% when considering only key players as defined above.

It's reasonable to assume then that the Africa Cup of Nations will have an impact on the goal threat that some teams carry over the next couple of months as detailed in the list below.

Club% of total Premier League goals scored by AFCON players
Watford57%
Liverpool48%
Burnley36%
Crystal Palace25%
Wolves15%
West Ham13%
Man City10%
Leicester7%
Everton5%
Arsenal3%

Again, Watford look to be in big trouble here with the bulk of their goal threat heading off to Cameroon in the not too distance future. The Hornets have the best goal scoring record of the teams that are within touching distance of them at the bottom of the league and again, they will sorely miss Sarr and Dennis in those must win games against Newcastle and Norwich in the second half of January.

Also towards the foot of the table, Burnley are going to have to compensate for the loss of their top scorer Maxwel Cornet who has netted 5 times for them in the league this season. Only Norwich and Wolves have scored fewer Premier League goals this season than Burnley so the Clarets will need to find a new source of goals if they are to pull away from the relegation battle.

Of course, the team losing the most stars to AFCON is Liverpool! Mo Salah and Sadio Mane are 2 of the best players in the league and their goals have lead Liverpool to multiple titles during their time at the club.

Liverpool would have known that this day was coming and moved to secure the services of Diogo Jota whose 10 Premier League goals this season puts him behind only Salah in the scoring charts. However, other than him, there are question marks about who will be able to fill the void left by Salah and Mane?

Roberto Firmino has also been a key member of the very potent Liverpool attack that Klopp has fielded but his goal output has never been on the same level of his African colleagues and he's struggled this season with a hamstring injury which might further impact Liverpool's chances of challenging in the league.

Elsewhere, Divock Origi's name will forever be etched in the history of the club and he is an excellent impact player off the bench but the fact remains that he hasn't started a Premier League match for 11 months and therefore it's difficult to know whether he has sufficient quality to lead the line on a match by match basis in the world's toughest league.

Simarly Takumi Minamino has been something of a bit part player since his transfer in 2019, making just 35 Premier League appearances the bulk of which have been off the bench. Indeed, when he has started of late it was during a loan spell at Southampton last season - he hasn't started a Premier League game for Liverpool for over a year!

Therefore, while their title challengers Man City are losing an equally gifted forward in Riyad Mahrez it seems less likely that the impact will be as great considering the multitude of options that Pep Guardiola has to choose from within his City squad.

Conclusions

To summarise briefly then, I'd expect the following impact on Premier League clubs over the next 6 weeks as a result of the African Cup of Nations.

  • Liverpool's title challenge wanes
  • Crystal Palace slide towards a relegation battle
  • Watford and Burnley are unable to pull away from the foot of the table

Raw data taken from Transfermarkt and BBC Sport



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24 comments
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Spurs have none. Hot diddly. Jesus Leicester are in right trouble. Also Liverpool losing salah may change the Outlook of the league. I'd say the clubs are going mad.

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In 2019 we had Aurier and Wanyama involved in AFCON but seems like since around 2018 we stopped buying African! I’ve no doubt for someone like Levy the potential to lose a player mid season for 6 weeks every other year is a big turnoff.

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Yeah I'd say that's why we just cancelled Auriers contract. The new boy that's joining us next year is Senegalise. Papa Saar. Another reason why they don't mind him coming next year. Interesting. Great Post mate. Was wondering what affect it would have on the prem.

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Fantastic write up. So much talent and my word, aren't Senegal stacked I particular!

Have been impressed with Ndidi. Very much helping out fill the void left by Kante

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Yeah of the West African sides they look the strongest at the moment. The traditional powerhouses of Nigeria and Cameroon don't seem to have progressed over the last couple of decades but who knows in a tournament situation

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I actually cannot wait to see World Cup in 2026 and the 9 spots from Africa. I always believe it's the hardest Confederation to qualify from

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Honestly I'm not convinced by the move to 48 teams for the World Cup.

It should be difficult to qualify for the tournament and although I can understand the desire to get more countries involved in what is the biggest sporting event on the planet, I also believe that fans want to see competitive matches.

International football already has a problem with there being too many uncompetitive games and if when the European Super League comes along, international football will become even less relevant.

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I do agree with you especially with a guaranteed OFC team which will be New Zealand every four years. If not NZ, lord help the OFC representative. A huge money grab. More teams, more games, more money...FIFA at its best

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Fiji? Micronesia? Papua New Guinea?

Perhaps I'm misinformed and PNG is a hot bed of footballing talent :-)

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Haha yep. NZ aside, Tahiti is a powerhouse within the OFC and actually qualified for the Confederations Cup in 2013. They lost 6:1 to Nigeria, 10:0 to Spain and 8:0 to Uruguay. This could be what happens in 2026

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Some teams are in big trouble and didn't realise it was this major.

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Reading the title, I was actually expecting it to be Liverpool, but damn! Watford are screwed it seems.

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Definitely going to be an uphill struggle for them now.

I guess all the EPL teams will be hoping that their respective players get knocked out of AFCON early!

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Liverpool FC will greatly feel the absence of its key players; Salah and Mane. Nonetheless, I believe the squad will still perform well and produce good results.

On the other hand, it's going to be a big blow for Watford. They Watford coach is then faced with a great task of improvising till his full squad returns.

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Absolutely and for Watford their current form is already bad enough so losing a few key players isn't likely to help their chance!

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In the end, it is importantly to have capable replacements on the bench in case of issues like this

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It looks like the AFCON is out to punish Watford. Lol... , especially with Emmanuel Dennis being named in Nigeria's provisional squad, with a very high likelihood of making the final list.

Arsenal should count themselves luck that Aubameyang has already been out of the team and they've been able to cope regardless. They'd however, miss Partey and hopefully he doesn't come back with an injury.

Mane and Salah are surely going to be big misses for Liverpool, but I believe they can pull through this period if Origi, Jota and Firmino up their games.

Luckily for all these teams, they may get their players back earlier than anticipated, depending on how far their countries go at the tournament.

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Yep, Watford are in deep trouble especially after their defeat yesterday.

Dennis is one of the form players in the league at the moment and can enhance his reputation with a good AFCON.

The bigger challenge for Arsenal is going to be squad depth and how they balance their ambitions in the league vs the domestic cups.

I think after last night's defeat and the loss of Salah and Mane it's difficult to see how Liverpool can overturn Man City

!BEER

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Luckily for Watford, Dennis is no longer going to the AFCON. A big plus for them if you ask me.

For Arsenal I think they will fare well without those players whom, if you look critically have become "fringe" members of the squad and they have players who can readily fill their voids.

Auba has been frozen out - Nketiah and even Balogun for cup games, that's if they don't bring in another striker. Martinelli has also always shown interest in playing centrally.

Pepe has been almost non-existent, save for the last cup game.
And for Elnenny who isn't a first team player, they have Lokonga and even Maitland Niles. I just feel the depth at Arsenal is enough.

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(Edited)

Yeah, no surpise that Watford didn't want him to leave based on the stats above!

I think for Arsenal, the interesting thing will be to see how strong a side they put out in the 2 legs of the League Cup semi-final which is where Pepe and Elnenay have been getting most of their game time. On one hand, they are very close to a cup final, on the other they have a big game against Spurs on 16th January. Can they chase both the cup final and 4th place in the league with 3 players and Aubameyang missing?

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The one player I think they'd miss whom I even forgot to mention is Thomas Partey. He's fond his form and stability in the team this season and he'd be a huge miss. For others, I think they'd cope.

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