Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

How the Bengals Win …

• Cincinnati are 2nd in the NFL at going the aerial route and could find success against Thomas, Jefferson, Carr and co. who are struggling, with the Bengals secondary ranked 4th-worst. Andy Dalton has been sacked almost 9% of the time
• The Bengals are desperate for more points, managing only 16 a game. Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard still can’t score a touchdown and the offense needs to convert red-zone opportunities, as they rank second last in doing so
• The pass rush unit is toothless, ranked 29th and sacking at a rate at under 4%. They’ll need to do a helluva lot better but have an opportunity against an O-line conceding at over 8%

How the Ravens Win …

• The Ravens will rush against the 2nd most targeted and 2nd-worst at stopping the rush. Baltimore are 4th at preventing stuffed runs so Mark Ingram should have a field day
• Baltimore’s offense has exploded into 1st in points per game scoring at over 32, and will relish facing the 6th-worst defense. Jackson’s dual-threat ability should expose the Bengal’s secondary and improve on their own rank of 14th in passing
• Despite the Bengals being winless, they’ve lost 3-of-5 by only four points or less. The Ravens only win by more than six was against the Dolphins in Week 1 so expect it to be closer than you may think

Seattle Seahawks (4-1) @ Cleveland Browns (2-3)

How the Seahawks Win …

• Russell Wilson is tearing it up with 12 passing touchdowns and along with Mariota and Mahomes, are the only three starting QBs to not throw an interception
• Seattle likes to run the ball with the 5th highest usage in the NFL. The Browns defense is 4th-last at stopping the rush. Chris Carson should have a field day and would be expected to score his first rushing TD since Week 1 if he’s fit to play
• The Browns rank second last in the league in both offensive and defensive penalty yards per game and may be an area for the Seahawks to exploit

How the Browns Win …

• Wilson leads the number one offense at red-zone visits to touchdown conversions. The Browns are more than capable of stopping the ball in the RZ and are ranked 5th
• Despite fielding Ziggy Ansah and Jadeveon Clowney, the two have only one sack each this season. The Seattle defense ranks 22nd with 10 total sacks and with only 17 quarterback hits all season, Baker Mayfield should have time in the pocket 
• Despite the injury crises, the Browns backup secondary has a done phenomenal job and ranks 8th in passing yards allowed. They’ve also caught a total of four interceptions
• The pass rush will make this one difficult for Wilson with a sack rate of over 9%, led by Myles Garrett’s seven sacks (2nd in NFL) and Larry Ogunjobi with three

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) @ LA Chargers (2-3)

How the Steelers Win …

• Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in total sacks with 19. Despite losing in OT last week to the Ravens they were able to penetrate and get to Lamar Jackson five times, and the week before sacked Andy Dalton eight times
• The Chargers were sacked six times last week and lost to the previously winless Broncos. The pass rush defense ranks middle of the pack and T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward, who have seven sacks combined this season, could cause issues for Philip Rivers
• The Steelers are fourth-worst in the NFL in rushing yards. The only teams that rank below are all winless. The Chargers rush defense has been below average ranking 19th. Pittsburgh will be looking to get more out of James Conner 

How the Chargers Win …

• Undrafted QB Devlin Hodges may make his first NFL start if Mason Rudolph isn’t fit to play following being knocked out last week. He’ll be a sure target for the Chargers who are 8th at pass yards against per game
• Rivers has led the the Chargers to 6th best in passing but will need to be weary of a Steelers’ secondary that ranks 12th with a pick rate of 3.5%
• The defense has struggled to rank 29th at defending touchdowns in the red-zone. The Steelers have their own concerns also 29th at converting but LA will need to lift their rate and keep pressure on Hodges/Rudolph

Shout out to all of those at #sportstalk. Originally posted on my Wolf Gang Sports blog, I hustle jerseys and produce content about players and their journeys with a bit of smack talk along the way. 

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