Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Tennessee Titans (2-2)

How the Bills Win …

• Bills defence is ranked 5th giving up 15.8 points per game. The D must find a way to sack Marcus Mariota who escaped being sacked last week but was sacked 17 times in his three games prior to that
• In what may be a battle of defenses, Matt Barkley who will likely replace Josh Allen (concussion) will need to be protected heavily. The Titans are currently ranked tied-5th for total sacks (13). The Bills O-line is ranked 17th allowing sacks at a rate of 6.37%
• Bills are ranked 4th in the NFL for rush yards per game (147.2) and Frank Gore is 12th individually for rush yards (273). Gore may be relied upon if Allen is confirmed to sit this one out
• The secondary will need to shut down Titans’ rookie A.J. Brown who averages 22.3 yards per catch for the season (10 receptions)

How the Titans Win …

• Mariota needs to remains aggressive. He has the longest current active passing streak without an interception in the league and has set a franchise record for most passes without an interception (169)
• Titans currently rank 6th in the NFL for third-down conversions allowed with 15 successful first-downs on 49 attempts (30.6%)
• The pass rush pressure Matt Barkley who has thrown 10 TD’s and 19 INT in his career. Titans are currently tied-5th in total sacks (13)
• The O-line will need to create gaps for Derrick Henry to explode and to protect Mariota and his passing streak. The Bills are ranked 2nd in total defensive yards allowed (280)

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

How the Colts Win …

• Exploit the Chiefs defense (especially their secondary) ranked 30th for yards allowed per game (408.5), 29th in yards allowed per play (6.3), 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (149.8) and 32nd in yards allowed per carry (5.9)
• The Colts rank 7th in rushing yards per game (132.5) and 3rd in rushing first downs per game (8.8). They’ll be hoping Marlon Mack is available, as he ranks 6th overall for total rushing yards (338)
• The Colts secondary will need to be at their very best against an offence that is 1st in passing, passing yards per attempt, pass plays of 20-plus yards (22) and 40-plus yards (8)
• Don’t dismiss the Chiefs run game which scored three times on the ground last week with Mahomes running six times for 54-yards (9.0 avg.)

How the Chiefs Win …

• Shut down the Colts in the red-zone. Jacoby Brissett has been converting at 71.43% in the red-zone, 4th best in the NFL.
• Patrick Mahomes needs to play his normal game. The Colts rank 13th against the pass in yards allowed per game (230.5) however, all but one opposing quarterback has thrown for multiple touchdowns.
• Look for the dynamic and skillful LeSean McCoy to exploit the Colts defense ranked 25th for yards allowed per game on the rush (132.5).

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (2-2)

How the Jaguars Win …

• The defensive front seven to pressure Kyle Allen who fumbled three times last week against the Texans and almost blew the game for the Panthers
• After exploding for 225-yards per week, Leonard Fournette to exploit Carolina’s 24th ranked defense against the run (130.8-yards per game) with an offense ranked 6th (135.2 yards per game).
• Shutdown the Panthers trio of Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel who have gained almost 75% of all 1,498 yards from scrimmage
• Beware of the Panthers pass rush tied-1st for sacks per game (4.5)

How the Panthers Win …

• Defense holds the highest sack rate in the NFL at 11.32% and will need to put Gardner Minshew off his game who is throwing at a 69.4% completion rate
• Carolina currently ranks 1st for opponent pass yards per game (156.8) and is the most in the first four games in franchise history
• Christian McCaffrey is currently 1st in the league for rushing yards (411) and yards from scrimmage (629) and will be a top target
• McCaffrey’s 25 receptions are the most among all running backs this season – and should allow for Moore and Curtis to continue to open up

>Atlanta Falcons (1-3) @ Houston Texans (2-2)

How the Falcons Win …

• The Falcons are ranked 29th in the NFL with a sack rate of 3.94% however they have the opportunity against the 31st ranked O-line allowing a 12.41% sack rate
• The Falcons O-line will need to protect Matt Ryan, conceding five sacks last week against the Titans and are ranked 12th with a sacked rate of 5.38%
• The Falcons have struggled with physical teams that rush the ball and will need to shut down the Texans rush that is currently ranked 12th for yards per game (120.2) and 5th for yards per rush (5.1). Duke Johnson has rushed for 146 yards and four touchdowns
• The Falcons have the lowest rush play percentage in the league (27.63%). They could surprise the 15th ranked Texans for rush yards per game (104.5) and 23rd ranked for yards per rush (4.8)

How the Texans Win …

• The O-line needs to work it out for the sake of Deshaun Watson. Houston ranks 30th in the NFL for sacks given up with 18 total for the year
• The leak O-line has restricted the Texans to 27th for total passing yards (209) and will be hoping that one of the best duo’s in the NFL of Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will explode against the Atlanta secondary. Hopkins has caught 259-yards and 2 TDs on 24 receptions this year
• If Whitney Mercilus gets going this will get messy for Atlanta. He leads the league in QB hits (6) and forced fumbles (4). He also has five sacks and three tackles for a loss
• Atlanta is 27th ranked rush yards per game (70.2) and are 32nd ranked at deploying the rush (27.63%). If the Texans secondary can shut down Ryan, the Falcons may be forced to play outside of their comfort zone

Shout out to all of those at #sportstalk. Originally posted on my Wolf Gang Sports blog, I hustle jerseys and produce content about players and their journeys with a bit of smack talk along the way. 

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