England must press home their advantage

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In a parallel universe England are already 2-0 up in this Ashes series and all the talk is whether we will whitewash the Aussies on our way to maintaining an 18-year winning streak at home against our bitter rivals. It's not to be .....

We've let go a situation in the first Test where for 2 sessions we saw the Australian batting once again disintegrate in English conditions only to see them rescued by the returning Steve Smith. Smith once again proved to be the saviour and was perhaps only prevented from playing the role of match-winner once more after sustaining a life-threatening injury. Thereafter we were left pondering the age-old question is it cowardly to pray for rain? The answer to which is a resounding no if you are an Australian batsman having to face Joffra Archer.

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Smith is floored by an Archer bouncer that will see him miss the 3rd Test

While injury and weather have conspired against the home team so far it would also be fair to say that their performances don't deserve a lead in this series. I haven't written much about cricket of late which is partly down to the fact that I just fancied a break and partly due to there being very little new to talk about in regards this England team's performance. Our batting is weak, our bowling at least up until the introduction of Archer is one-dimensional and our leadership non-existant. I've said it all before and like a broken record I could repeat it all again but what's the point?

What you can't deny is that England play exciting Test Match cricket. That is as much a result of them being unable to dominate sides with the bat as it is anything else. Were we playing in Australia or India you would expect that home nation to pass 400+ at least 3 times in a 5 game series but for England it is a struggle on most occasions to get beyond 300. That always keeps the opposition in the game and while I and other England supporters can lament some bad luck the fact remains that had it not been for a Joffra Archer thunderbolt nearly decapitating one of the best batsmen of their generation and another excellent Lord's performance by Ben Stokes, England could easily find themselves sliding towards Ashes oblivion.

This was always likely to be a series dominated by the ball which is precisely why it will be a batsman who wins you the game. Steve Smith has done it once for Australia but he has since been ruled out for the 3rd Test that starts on Thursday. With England not having a player of his calibre in their ranks then it seems likely that it will need to be a team effort. Can they get enough batsmen firing at the same time to put some scoreboard pressure on the Aussies and then ram home their advantage?

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In the 3 innings that he did play Smith contributed 37% of his team's runs

There are signs of life amongst the likes of Rory Burns who has had an excellent series to date and Ben Stokes who struck a magnificent hundred at Lords. England will be buoyed by the fact that Buttler and Bairstow also had some time in the middle during the 2nd Test and as I identified before the series that "engine room" at number 5, 6 and 7 will be an area that we feel we can be more effective than the Australians.

Travis Head has done well without really going on to get a big score and while Matthew Wade did get a hundred in the 1st Test he has also delivered 3 single-figure scores either side of that. That century came very much when Australia were on top at Edgbaston but Wade has yet to show he is capable of resisting when things aren't in his side's favour. England will also be encouraged by the fact that they are getting Wade out in a variety of different manners - LBW to the inswinger, caught at gully to the away swinger and gloving a catch to short-leg off the spinner. A truly world-class operator would be able to take away at least one of those modes of dismissal, can Wade do that?

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Steve Waugh was part of the tour group for the first 2 Tests and rumours are that Ricky Ponting will now come in to resume the role he held during the World Cup

Then comes Tim Paine, the compromise candidate, the Jimmy Carter of cricket. Not quite a peanut farmer but well on his way to retirement from the middle before he was picked from obscurity and within a year found himself leading his nation through one of their most troubling times. To be frank he doesn't look up to this level of cricket and I think it is telling that Australia continue to invite the likes of Steve Waugh and Ricky Ponting into the dressing room. My feeling is a truly strong leader would want to define the team on his own terms and while I've no doubt it's helpful to have former greats to fall back on for advice their continued presence suggests a need to fill a void that should usually be covered within the playing 11 itself.

Of course, Australia aren't the only ones suffering a leadership crisis. I'll write a full blog on the role of Root, what might occur post-Ashes and who will fill the Head Coach role after Baylis departs next month. The bottom line is that Root's career has flat-lined since he took over the captaincy. His performances in particular against the other top Test-playing nations are of particular concern and while his overall record still looks good on paper he continues to slip away from the truly elite players such as Kohli and Smith.

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Worrying statistics for England's captain and premier batsman

Elsewhere Jason Roy appears to be having an existential crisis that is mirrored by his opposite number David Warner. Warner's record in England is proof that openers of his and Roy's ilk rarely do well at the top of the order in these conditions. However, you feel that even a cameo fifty from either player might be enough to provide momentum that their respective middle order can build on. Both players are well and truly under the pump, is it time for them to throw caution to the wind and go down swinging? Death or glory awaits.

Test Match cricket is once again showing why it is the ultimate format of the game and still one the purest contests in the world of sports. Punch is followed by counter-punch and there is no escape from the all-encompassing arena of a 5 Test series. A couple of Australia's batsmen have literally pulled themselves up off the canvas to beat the count, can England press home that advantage and get them up against the ropes at Headingley? If they do, they'll need to ensure they finish the job this time around.......



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It is going to be interesting what effect Archer has in the next game. The slope of the Lords pitch played into his hands as it should have gone away with the slope but his action bought it back up the slope. The Ausssies know now and wont be caught out again. Englands chance was this last test match and rain ruined it for them. I cannot see Archer causing the same problems again even though I rate him highly. This week the Aussies would have been working overtime in the nets so they are used to that kind of delivery.

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The slope undoubtedly helped but I believe that Archer has hit 15 batsmen since his international debut significantly more than any other bowler in the same period. He pinned Hashim Amla on his World Cup debut and knocked Alex Carey's helmet off in the Semi-Final games played at the Oval and Edgbaston respectively so it wasn't just Lord's where batsmen have found him difficult to combat. The more pressing issue for Australia's batsmen is picking his pace and length as there is no discernable difference in his run-up and action when he bowls the bouncer. You can have as much time in the nets facing a bowling machine that is banging it around your throat but it's not nearly the same as facing the man himself. What Australia need is time in the middle against him.

I'd expect the pitch at Leeds to be fairly flat and the forecast is good so in reality runs on the board in the 1st innings will determine this game. Headingley has always had something for bowlers who are willing to pitch it up and induce the drive so while England might have got excited by the scene of Aussie batsmen calling for the physio every few overs in reality they need to be more calculating in their use of the short pitched stuff if they are to take 20 wickets in the 3rd Test. I'd also expect the pitch to spin fairly early on so the man who took as many wickets in that 4th innings as Archer, Jack Leach will also be a factor for the Australians.

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I think the one thing you forgot is Starc has had a rest now and is sure to return to strengthen their bowling line up as well. He is always good for a few wickets early on and I am sure they will rest Siddle.

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I was initially surprised that he hasn't played already but there were some interesting stats about him doing the rounds recently. From memory, I heard one that over the last year he is averaging 58 with the ball against top 6 batsmen and going at over 4 an over. Look at his stats in that time in general it's only Sri Lanka that he's been successful against and that's not realy saying much.

While he has great wicket-taking abilities I think Australia relise that in a 4 man attack it's a big risk to play him as he does leak runs and he is injury prone.

Cummins is the premier fast bowler and an automatic pick, Hazlewood bowled well in the first innings at Lord's and I though Pattinson was Australia's best bowler in the first innings at Edgbaston. Siddle is the work horse, again in a 4 man attack you might need someone to bowl long steady spells and Starc isn't going to give you that. It's difficult to see whose position he'd take.

Away from the quicks I've bet on Nathan Lyon to be the leading wicket taker @7.5, I think it'll be a fairly dry flat pitch which will take spin quite early on and so that's decent price in my mind

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The Aussies shouldn't be exactly unfamiliar with Archer either given he's had a couple of seasons for the Hobart Hurricanes in the domestic T20 competition here too.

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Slightly different kettle of fish when he's only bowling 1 or 2 over spells and you know that with all bowlers in T20 the key to success is variety whereas in Test Match cricket a bowler like Archer can just go fast and hostile for 5 or 6 overs on the bounce which is precisely what he did

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True, though some exposure, even in the nets like Wade and Paine will have likely had, is still going to be a little better than none at all, such as if England had picked someone that had burst on to the First Class scene a little more suddenly

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What was your take on the concussion substitute?

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I think it's the right thing to do.

I have some experience of working with young people who have sustained head injuries and while cricket is important to a lot of fans nothing should be more important than players wellbeing in those kind of situations. In reality, they should never had let Smith come back out to bat in that 1st innings but it's a common problem in almost every sport - if you ask the player if they are ok, most will say they are.

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I absolutely agree. I would rate it as one of the more beneficial rule changes implemented within the sport.

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That parallel universe would be one without Steve Smith i'm guessing...

Great write up, the next test will be fascinating. Is the weather expected to hold out for the match?

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Weather is expected to be excellent and quite warm (at least for the North of England).

Well no Steve Smith would help. I thought that a year long ban was a bit harsh at first but now I'm thinking maybe it should have been 2 years instead ;-)

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Yeah, a year was too much. I thought 1 year for Warner, and maybe 6 months Bancroft, 3 months and lose the captaincy for Smith would have been sufficient. Anyway, what's done is done, let's see if Warner can find his test form in this match.

Good to hear that the weather is likely to co-operate, I can actually watch a fair bit of this match as I'm on holidays at the moment.

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