Betting on the ENG 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ITA 🇮🇹 Euro Final

Thought I'd share some thoughts and some betting ideas for the England v Italy Euro 2020 soccer final, this evening 8pm (UK time).

I've had a keen eye on the betting odds on this one. When the market opened ENG and ITA were roughly the same odds in the win market, hard to separate, but as we've edged closer to the day the market is clearly favouring England here quite strongly.

Worth noting that 3 of the last 6 Euros finals were drawn at 90 minutes, whilst seven of the 13 Euro or World Cup finals since 1994 have ended all-square at 90 minutes – that’s a 54% hit-rate. Meanwhile, at Euro 2020 alone, half of the 14 knockout ties have paid out for draw backers, including both semi-finals.

One could expect a very close tie and a relatively low scoring game, given the lack of goals which both teams concede. It'll also likely be a very cagey affair due to the gravity of the tie and the obvious desire not to lose. England can play slow and very cautiously in this type of tie. These two teams could potentially cancel each other out.

I think there's a very high chance that the game goes the distance and reaches extra time or penalties, so there may be some value in both backing the draw and taking a team to win in ET or penalties. I would argue that if it went to ET I'd be leaning towards England winning, they have proven so far that their fitness levels may surpass Italy's and they arguably have a much stronger bench. As far as penalties though, that's obviously a lottery.

The main angle I'm looking at is:
Draw & Under 2.5 Goals - you can get a price of around 5/2 (3.50)

The draw alone is priced up with a best price of 2/1 (3.00) and also worth considering.

Having said all of that I wouldn't talk someone out of placing a bet on Italy in 90 minutes, albeit a small bet purely based on the market move away from them. I think people may be getting carried away with England's chances, especially in 90 minutes, and Italy's odds have gone from around 2.7 - 3.5, that's a big move and represents value. Italy will likely want to seal the win in 90 minutes because they may realise that the fitness/bench factor works against them the longer the tie goes on, therefore I will be having a small wager on them at that price also. My main wager is the 'Draw & U2.5' though.

I won't be venturing into any more markets, like goalscorers etc, because there's not much value there, especially in what will likely be a low scoring affair. But if I had to look elsewhere it would probably be in the card markets, the one that stands out right now (depending on team selection) would be Declan Rice (ENG) 'To Be Shown a Card' at 5.50, he's quite a young player and operating in a position of high importance protecting that back 4. Bet365 are giving out free bets so that's like to be my wager using that token of generosity.

This post my not age well, but those are my thoughts and I'm prepared to be proven wrong! It should be a great game, and don't gamble more than you can afford to lose.

Peace.
J Wilderness.

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