Real Madrid is in Serious trouble to not Qualify in Champions League Knockout Stage

in Sports Talk Social3 months ago

It can be remembered that I posted this article yesterday : A Disaster for Real Madrid!, that disaster I meant was for both La Liga and Champions League hopes of qualifying.


Real Madrid in Serious Trouble.png
Photo source : EuroSport | Design thanks to Canva

The difference is that now is in more serious trouble. This is after they suffer a disappointing loss against Shakhtar Donetsk (2-0) on Matchday 5 of the UEFA Champions League group stage. It was a shocker considering they have dominated in all aspects of the game from possession, total shots taken, shots on goal, passes, pas accuracy, and even corners (11 to 2) yet they weren't able to capitalize on that dominance.

Goals from Dentinho (57') and substitute Manor Solomon (82') were the goals to seal the victory. The first goal was controversial because it was purely a miscommunication from Real Madrid's backline. The second one was the cost of implying so much pressure which was the reason for the collapse in defense when Shakhtar Donetsk took advantage to counterattack.

There were really good chances from Real Madrid that could've been easy goals but guess what they were a bit unlucky on those chances and it seems like there was no sign of big determination to score. But why does Real Madrid are in serious trouble to not qualify for the Champions League knockout stage?


Take a look at Group B's Table Standing First


image.png

With only one game left, how will the table look? By looking at the table, all of these teams have a fair chance of qualifying even Inter Milan. I'll tell the reason why as you continue reading this post. These are the upcoming fixtures on December 10 :

  • Real Madrid vs Monchengladbach at Borussia-Park
  • Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inter Milan at San Siro

Here are the possible scenarios after Day 6. Let's take a look at the standings :


Monchengladbach & Inter Milan Advance to KO stage

Since Monchengladbach only needs a point to advance, Inter Milan will need to win its final match so that they both advance to the knockout stage. They were the first scenario because they were the teams who have a home-court advantage. Playing in your homecourt gives you more confidence, familiarity with the field, and most especially crowd support. Fans are now allowed to witness the match but with a limited seating capacity.

A point for Monchengladbach gives them 9 pts, enough to win at least the 2nd position while it will give Inter Milan 8 points.


Monchengladbach and Shakhtar Donetsk Advance

Since Monchengladbach only needs a point to advance, their match result against Real Madrid will determine the possible outcome for Shakhtar Donetsk if things will get in trouble at the table. These will be the possible scenarios :

    • If Monchengladbach wins against Real Madrid, they only need a draw against Inter Milan to qualify.
    • If Monchengladbach draws against Real Madrid, they only need a draw against Inter Milan.
    • If Monchengladbach loses against Real Madrid, they need to win against Inter Milan.

You might be in doubt of the 2nd and 3rd scenarios where Shakhtar qualifies. But here's the reason.

If Monchengladbach draws against Real Madrid, they only need a draw against Inter Milan.

If they get a draw against Inter Milan, both Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk will have 8 points which mean there needs to be a way to settle this tie.

    • If Monchengladbach loses against Real Madrid, they need to win against Inter Milan.

Shakhtar needs to win against Inter Milan so both Real Madrid and Shakhtar will get 10 points which means there needs to be a way to settle this tie. Now here's the more complicated part :

  • Unlike Premier League where if teams tie at the end of the season it will be settled via Goal difference (GD). This means whoever gets the bigger Goal difference will be ahead.
  • In the Champions League, it is different. Thanks to The Sun for explaining the mechanics in the Champions League. They will be settled and sorted by the following criteria :

Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;

Now here are the results of their head-to-head matches in the Champions League :

HomeAwayScore
Real MadridShakhtar Donetsk2-3
Shakhtar DonetskReal Madrid2-0

This means Shakhtar Donetsk wins in head-to-head matches. They will be the one to qualified if they tie with Real Madrid after Matchday 6.

It is actually a long list of sorting which teams will be above if the points are tied. Take a look at these criteria in chronological order below :

  • Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
  • Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
  • Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
  • Away goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
  • Goal difference in all group matches;
  • Goals scored in all group matches;
  • Away goals scored in all group matches;
  • Wins in all group matches;
  • Away wins in all group matches;
  • Disciplinary points (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
  • UEFA club coefficient.


Criteria information from The Sun's Champions League sorting rules: Are groups decided by head-to-head record or goal difference when teams finish level?


Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk Advance

If both Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk win their respective matches, they'll be the teams to advance having 10 points each. Monchengladbach (8 pts) and Inter Milan (5 pts) will be out of the competition.


Real Madrid and Inter Milan Advance

If both Real Madrid and Inter Milan win their final matches, they will be the teams to advance. The same thing with Real Madrid and Shakhtar, Inter Milan has the head-to-head match advantage against Monchengladbach.

HomeAwayScore
Inter MilanMonchengladbach2-2
MonchengladbachInter Milan2-3

It's indeed very complex. The table, head-to-head matches, home team, and player's conditions are very pieces to consider. Who do you think will qualify? I have Monchengladbach and Inter Milan in my mind :)


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What we are looking for is something that is crazy. Not a football team not performing like they should which I get your thinking. Your post from yesterday was already submitted last night so no worries. Find something different in the sporting world that is crazy and shocking and is new and interesting. There are loads of sports that we don't even know about.

I see. Thanks for the feedback. I'll be going crazy on my next posts about sports.

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Should I say that this Group B is very competitive or is it that the big names are currently flopping? Whatever be the case, I just hope RMD win and proceed to the Round of 16.