Burnley v Brighton Prediction - Seagulls to struggle to break down Burnley

Burnley and Brighton have been 2 of the clubs that I've made a large number of my recent predictions on largely because they are so predictable and I don't see today's game being too different.

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Elsewhere in the country there will be teams fighting for a Champions League finish or scrapping to stay clear of relegation but here at Turf Moor 2 underwhelming sides will play in a game with very little at stake.

Burnley have had a typically solid season and have lost just 1 of their last 14 matches which was a 5-0 defeat against Man City at the Ethiad, the kind of result that most teams have suffered at the hands of the outgoing Champions at home this season.

Of course what you don't regularly get in a Burnley match is goals! Outside of the drumming against City there has only been 3 or more goals in a match twice in their last 17 games!

The Claret's 2 goals at bottom side Norwich last time out was the first time they'd scored more than once in a game since way back in February when they dispatched the 2nd bottom side Bournemouth. Brighton will almost certainly provide stiffer opposition than those 2 but it should also be noted that while Burnley aren't spectacular side going forward they are an efficient one and since the turn of the year they have only drawn a blank in 4 matches.

More recently their run of form is made even more impressive given the injury problems they have suffered since the restart. Ben See, Jack Cork and Ashley Barnes would almost certainly be regular starters and Charlie Taylor who has had an impressive season at left-back is also an injury doubt for this game.

Brighton's away record this season is actually pretty good. The Seagulls have only lost 8 games on their travels which is the same number as Leicester and just one short of the likes of Man City, Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea who all lost 7 times.

Again, this record is not based on free flowing football and in fact Brighton have scored only 7 times from open play this season in away matches. Set Pieces have been the Seagulls go to method for hitting the back of the net on their travel and they account for 41% of their total away goals this season, only Everton who have the most set-piece goals away from home (10) have been more reliant on this as a method of scoring (50% of their total away goals).

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James Tarkowski has won more ariel duals per match (5.2) than any other player in the Premier League this season ahead of VVD (5.0) and Harry Maguire (4.2)

Unfortunately for Brighton they are unlikely to get much change from this Burnley side at corners and free kicks. The home team have conceded just twice this season at Turf Moor from such situations which is the equal best record in the league with Man City.

Historically, this hasn't been a happy hunting ground for Brighton. In fact they've never scored here in the Premier League (2 previous encounters) and while these sides have played each other fairly regularly on their way up to the top flight, you have to go all the way back to 2013 for the last time Brighton beat Burnley in any competition.

Given the above the odds of this match being under 2.5 goals seem very generous. I don't know if the bookies are perhaps expecting both these sides to slip the handbrake given it's the final game of the season and while that could be true, I still doubt that either will want to lose this fixture and it is therefore likely to be a tight encounter.

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @1.98

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I am going with a Burnley/Draw on this one.
Enjoy the games!

That sounds like a safe bet!

Good luck

!BEER

Lol thanks!


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