West Ham v Burnley Prediction - I love a good claret but which one?

As predicted in a couple of recent blogs, West Ham have been able to inch their way towards safety. Watford's win last night has drawn the Hornet level on points with the home team but it's the 4 point margin the Villa and Bournemouth plus the fact that West Ham have a far superior goal difference to either that means they are probably 1 win away from securing Premier League football in 2020.

So is this the match to do it? Well, the bookies certainly seem to think so with most offering prices on or just shy of even money for the Hammers to make it 7 points in the last 3 games. Of course their visitors today know just what such a run is like because they too have collected that many points from their previous 3 fixtures and are now pushing on up the league and sniffing a chance of at least a top-half finish if not a potential Europa League spot.

In fact, Burnley's only defeat since the re-start was in their opening match where they were trounced at the Ethiad by a City side that is thrashing even league champions at home. Since then Burnley have tightened up at the back and a late equaliser for Sheffield United in their last match out was the only goal they've conceded in over a fortnight. West Ham have been much improved as an attacking force in their last couple of games but they will need to be right on the money tonight to breach a well-drilled Burnley side.

In fact, recent history tells us that they've often struggled to do just that with West Ham drawing a blank in the last 2 times these sides met and 3 out of the previous 4. Michel Antonio's form upfront continues to be a key weapon for the home side but physicality alone is unlikely to concern this Burnley side who will be quite happy to engage in an arm wrestle in all areas of the pitch not least of all in the penalty area.

A bigger concern for the home side remains their defence. They have conceded twice in every game back so far and maintaining that kind of a record makes it very difficult to win games! The graphic below demonstrates the success with which Burnley generate chances in the opposition's box (particularly the 6-yard area) while simultaneously defending their own goal. There is no great mystery to the way that Burnley play with their twin strikers and they will equally be keen to load the box at any opportunity from set-piece a tactic that could well prove difficult for West Ham's fragile defence to resist for 90mins.

Stats + EPL ranking

These stats tell you everything you need to know about the way the game is likely to play out this evening. Expect Burnley to get the ball into the box at every opportunity!

The only reason that I am resisting picking Burnley for a win outright is that their squad is beset by something of an injury crisis that sees the likes of Ben Mee, Jack Cork and Ashley Barnes to mention just a few missing for this game and probably the rest of the season. Burnley don't have a particularly deep squad and given the congestion of the fixture list at the moment I would be concerned about fatigue given those limited resources.

Still, I think Burnley are very unvalued in this match given their recent form and the stats above and I think a bet on a double chance represents good value for money.

Prediction: Double Chance - Draw or Burnley @ 2.02

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