GW16 Premier League Previews and Free Bets with Samba Pools

Goals seems to be the name of the game at the moment. After the stop start nature of the first third of the season, teams are really beginning to find their attacking grove now and playing for 3 points seems to be the way many managers are setting up their sides.

That of course is impacting success in predicting the games and this is how our leaderboard for Samba Pools is looking at the moment!

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Chelsea's stop start season continues. For me, their unpredictably was fairly predicatable. There are enough gaps in the squad, particularly in defence, to mean that they were never going to be serious title contenders while I'm still not sure they are close to knowing their best XI. Of course a team needs options and depth but when you look at those sides who win championships, they generally have a core of 8 or 9 players you know will start if fit.

As for Everton, they've won 4 of their last 5 Premier League games putting them just a point behind the West London side. December is likely to tell us whether this is a genuine challenge for a European spot or just the case of them being the best of an average bunch. After this match they host Arsenal before traveling to relegation threatened Burnley and Forest.

Everton's primary issue continues to be putting the ball in the back of the net. Only the bottom 4 sides in the table have scored fewer goals than the Toffees so far this season. However, Chelsea aren't doing substantially better at the moment with their last 3 matches seeing them record a combined xG of just 2.42 with no individual game exceeding 1 expected goal.

Chelsea have scored only 10 goals at home all season, while Everton have conceded just 7 on the road, including clean sheets in their last 2 away matches. Another tight match here would follow an established pattern in recent years, with 8 of the last 10 matches between these 2 finishing under 2.5 goals.

Most people's pre-season favorites to retain their title following their massive summer spend and of course the fact that they were able to retain the likes of VVD and Salah but now Liverpool find themselves in full crisis mode!

They've now conceded 3 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 matches in all competitions which is just not sustainable at any level of the game and particularly for a side that expects to be challenging for titles.

The fact that Brighton themselves have been involved in quite a few goals this season (46 in total) should make this a fairly entertaining match although they have managed a shut out in both their last away games.

Only Man City have scored more goals from open play this season than either of these teams so fingers crossed that a football match breaks out. There have been over 2.5 goals in 9 of the last 10 games between these 2. Meanwhile since Brighton got their first Premier League point against Liverpool back in 2020, they've gone on to beat them 4 times in all competitions including as recently as May 2025.

As I've suggested on several blogs over the last couple of months, Burnley's 10 points from their opening 10 games was a massive overachievement when you look at the underlying numbers they were putting up. They've since lost 6 on the bounce and it's becoming difficult to envisage where they'll get their next point from.

Fulham continue to be fairly unpredictable. A couple of wins at the back end of November seemed to be easing them away from the wrong end of the league but they've followed that up with 2 home defeats which leaves them uncomfortably close to the 3 sides below them, all of who are picking up points at the moment.

Fulham's away form has been a concern this season. They've scored just 6 times in 7 matches while Burnley have just 5 goals at Turf Moor. Given the significance of the fixture in the future of both sides, I'd expect another cagey match this afternoon.

At the turn of the century, both these sides were playing in the 3rd tier of English football and have bounced up and down from the Premier League ever since their first meeting back in 2009. Since then, Burnley have won 6 of their encounters to Fulham's 2 and you have to go all the way back to 1951 for the last time Fulham came away from Burnley with all 3 points.

Top versus bottom and you'd have to assume that this is more a question of not whether Arsenal will win but by how many.

The only small (and I mean very small) silver lining for Wolves fans is that they did at least get to celebrate a goal against United. Their first and only strike in their last 6 matches! I don't fancy their chances of getting another against the league's tightest defense.

Back at their Premier League peak under Nuno, Wolves were a massive bogey team for Arsenal with a record over 3 seasons (18/19, 19/20, 20/21) of 3 wins, 2 draws and a loss against the Gunners. Since then they've lost 8 in a row against Arteta's side as they've gone from a team challenging to Europe to one that'd be lucky to avoid a record low points tally.

One thing Wolves don't do a lot of relative to their league position is concede many from set-pieces. Teams have scored just 4 times against them from such situations this season but Arsenal will test that while also feeling that they may be able to pad out their own goals from open play stats.

Man City have won 3 in a row and 5 out of their last 6 to put some pressure on Arsenal at the top. However, you wouldn't say that they ever give you the sense of any reliability at the moment. That is mostly due to their porous defense which has kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.

By the same token, Pep's side have scored 11 times in their last 3 games and seem to have shed their earlier reliance on Haaland to do all their scoring for them (he's got just 1 of those 11 goals).

In such a conjested table, Palace got themselves a valuable late winner at Fulham on Sunday to move themselves into the Champions League places. I'd still be concerned that their squad lacks a bit of depth to sustain that position as well as maintaining runs in the domestic and continental cups.

Palace's one Achilles heal at the moment is winning games at home. They've only lost once but have recorded 4 draws at Selhurt Park and scored just 9 times. They seem to be a better side when other teams are looking to dominate and you'd imagine that's just what City will seek to do.

Glasner's team famously beat City 1-0 in the FA Cup Final last Spring but other encounters between these 2 managers have produced far more goals including 17 in the other 3 matches that Pep and Glasner have gone head to head in!

Momentum for Sean Dyche and Forest has stalled slightly after 7 points from 3 games with the latest 3-0 defeat to Everton the 7th time that Forest have lost by 2 or more goals so far this season.

Meanwhile Spurs have managed to right the ship after 10 first half mins against Fulham that threatened to derail Thomas Frank's reign at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Another gritty performance on the road saw them take a point from Newcastle and they've since recorded convincing wins in a couple of home matches.

The first quarter of this game could go a long way to deciding the result. Spurs have developed a nasty habit of conceding early goals this season - 22% of their goals conceded have come in the first 15mins and 61% in the first half. Meanwhile 21% of Forest's goals have been scored in the opening quarter of an hour.

The last 6 meetings between these sides have finished with a win to nil and you wouldn't be overly surprised to see a similar result this time around. Spurs have scored the joint most away goals this season (15 with Chelsea) but from an xG of just 7.85. They are looking to record back to back league victories for the first time since Frank's opening 2 games in charge.

All derbies are special but when you have to wait a while between them then it gives it an added dimension. These 2 did meet in an FA Cup match back in January 2024 but it's been 9 years since their last league encounter during which time Sunderland have slipped all the way down to the 3rd tier while having to watch Newcastle become the richest club in the world.

This was however a fixture that Sunderland dominated in their previous stint in the Premier League with 6 wins and 3 draws from their last 9 league meetings with Newcastle. You have to go all the way back to the start of the 11/12 season for the last time the Tyne beat the Wear.

Having spoken about Spurs' incredible over achievement on their xG away from home it only feels right to mention that the only side that comes close to matching that is Sunderland and their home performance. They've scored 14 goals from an xG of just 7.81.

Alongside Arsenal, Sunderland remain the only team with an unbeaten home record this season. Newcastle swept passed Everton on their last away trip scoring 4 of their 7 away league goals in 1 go having otherwise struggled to collect points on the road. It does suggest that while this will no doubt be a fiery encounter that it might not be a goal fest.

After a fairly shambolic start to the season in which they were struggling to score goals and win games, Villa are now the form team in the league. In fact, take the first 5 games of the 25/26 season out of the equation and Villa would be top, 3 points clear of City and 4 points clear of Arsenal. The question now is, can they sustain this form?

A Thursday night trip to Switzerland for the Europa League means this match comes with a very tight turn around while they also have to play Arsenal (again) and Chelsea before the end of 2025.

West Ham will be disappointed to have conceded a late equaliser at Brighton that cost them a valuable 3 points on the road. However, with just 1 defeat in their last 6 games under Nuno they are evidently much tougher to beat than was the case earlier in the year.

Villa have scored on their last 6 visits to the London Stadium and will fancy their chances of finding the back of the net again against a West Ham side that is yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season. In fact, the last time the Hammers didn't concede at home was verus Leicester back in February 2025, 13 Premier League games ago.

Brentford's home and away form this season has been like chalk and cheese. They were once again fairly woeful at Spurs last weekend and will want to pick up their performance against a Leeds side that is showing significant belief in recent games if they hope to continue their dominance at the Gtech.

It looked for all intensive purposes like this Leeds side was ready to throw in the towel with just 3 points from 6 games and 3 nil down at half-time against a rampant City. However, they came out swinging in the 2nd half of that game and haven't stop throwing punches since. 4 points versus Chelsea and Liverpool can almost be seen as a bonus. Games versus Brentford are the fixtures that they will have targeted pre-season to take something from.

There have been over 3.5 goals in Brentford's last 3 home matches while Leeds last 7 Premier League fixtures have had over 2.5 goals with 15 goals in their last 3 matches. It all points to what should be a pretty entertaining game between 2 sides who will be desperate for a result in this one.

These 2 don't have a long history of playing matches against each other but again, goals have usually been on the table. An Ivan Toney hattrick saw Brentford to a 5-2 victory the last time these 2 sides met at the Gtech.

Another Monday, another United match! This will be their third in the last 4 weeks!

Their win against Wolves last Monday was impressive albeit predictable and they'll want to build on that against a Bournemouth side who are similarly leaky in defence at the moment. In fact, only Burnley have conceded more goals on their travels so far this season while no win in their last 6 for the Cherries means that only the relegation fodder of Wolves and Burnley have picked up fewer points since the start of November.

Of course Bournemouth can take confidence from the fact that they've run out convincing 3-0 winners on their last 2 trips to Old Trafford. The fact that United have kept just 1 clean sheet at home all season and none in any of their last 8 league games will give Areola hope that his side can walk away with another 3 points if they can only sure things up at the back.

The chances for goals in this game are only increased by Fifa's decision to push back the requirement for players to report for AFCON duty. That means Mbeumo and Amad will almost certainly play for United while Semenyo's involvement was never in doubt after Ghana failed to qualify for the tournament full stop.