Jupiler League Week 19 Saturday Previews
(Edited)
5 Matches will be played today and 4 tomorrow followed by something that isn't really a winter break as more matches that were delayed will be played during that period and January will be a month packed with many many games and teams often only having 2 days in between. I'm short in time today with only 2 hours before the start of the first match. This is one of those weeks with a lot of variables as not all pitches will be good and some players might be homesick due to Christmas time while covid remains an issue with both players that are out and those that come back possibly still feeling it in their body. So my approach will be with caution mostly looking at the pre-game interviews how the match evolves in-game...
Club Brugge vs Eupen
Club Brugge lost to AA Gent at home in a match that was by no means a hold-up. They haven't been playing at their capabilities in the league and I'm started to feel they are way too much of a gamble even when falling behind. The lines have also barely been adjusted with a -1.75/-2 line at home with no fans against Eupen who have been a mature team so far this season especially away and against top teams. Eupen hasn't played a match in a while as their last 3 matches got postponed due to covid cases. This remains too big of a question mark how they will come out of it to consider betting them. Club Brugge only got 1 goal against in their last 5 league matches while Eupen will have some missings in offense with top striker Prevjak and Ngoy out along with Adriano, Poulain, & Kayembe. I expect the visitors to basically build a wall as it has been a successful recipe in the past in matches like this. The main question is if or when Club Brugge will be able to break it. They have shown to have had difficulties with this in recent matches. No Pre-Game betsZulte-Waregem vs Cercle Brugge
Zulte-Waregem showed again last week that they are a team that can't be trusted even when odds get to a point where they feel very high on them. Both De Bock and Deschacht will be back for them in defense and their pitch is pretty bad which won't help the overall quality of play. Cercle Brugge has gotten themselves into a big losing streak now with a 0 on 15 yet they are only a +0.25 away underdog. 4 out of those 5 lost matches had 3 or more goals in them while 3 out of the last 5 Zulte-Waregem matches also had 3 goals or more. Bad pitch and likely some stress as it's a direct dual in the bottom of the ranking won't help though along with the pitch. Both teams have around 68% of their goals in the 2nd half so in case it turns out to be a nervous 1st half which pushes the total line lower, I might get in on the over. Zulte-Waregem is a poor home side 2W-6L vs Asian handicap while Cercle has performed pretty well going 4W-3L-1P away. If my hand was forced, I would go with the visitors+ handicap. Since nobody is doing that, I rather opt to just stay away and see what the match brings. No Pre-Game BetsKortrijk vs AA Gent
AA Gent has improved a lot since new Coach Vanhaezebroeck was brought back and most of all look a lot more solid in defense. Kortrijk remains a team that doesn't have the performances at home anymore and is nothing special at the moment. Vadis got injured and I expected it to show in the match against Club Brugge but it didn't really make too much of a difference. The over is always on my radar in Kortrijk home matches but I am cautious as the line is starting to catch up on this trend and AA Gent has shown solid defense. I got in a small-medium bet on AA Gent -0.25 @ 2.03 yesterday evening sharing it in the SBC Discord Server and I'm glad I did not wait as the odds collapsed overnight to the point where it might not be a bad idea to just take the money. For now, I will keep hanging on to what I have and will see how the match goes in-game. Yaremchuk to score @ 2.470 (with odds boost promo) is a bet I might take on as a beer bet over at Sportsbet.io in case he is confirmed to be in the starting line-up as he is the striker in-form. Should be an interesting match.OHL vs Oostende
OHL saw their streak broken and should be in for some regression to the mean after having a hot streak which put them in 4th position. Oostende did not have a match last week but is in better form again with 2 wins in their last 3 matches. The home team tends to play a counter style of play while the visitors play with a lot of pressing. One of the more remarkable stats is that Oostende is an over home team and an under away team( 6W-2L-1P vs Asian total line. I took small bets on Under 3 @ 2.064 and 1st Half Under 1.25 @ 1.91 and will see how it goes live. Oostende used to be a over corners team but things seem to have turned around with 3 unders in their last 3 matches while OHL is under in their last 5 home matches.Standard vs Sint-Truiden
Standard is in crisis and their coach is under heavy fire at the moment. They did show good form in the Europa League so they certainly are capable so I do have a hard time opposing them. Stvv has a new coach which brought somewhat of a shock effect taking a win in their last match keeping things closed in defense. The odds very much suggest this as the visitors are only a +0.5 underdog with the total line being set at 2.5. My lean right now is to oppose this but I will need to see more first in-game. No Pre-Game BetsPre-Game Preview Bets I continue to share many of my pre-game bets in all my preview posts. Most of them are smaller bets or trading positions and some of them I took early in the week and might not have the exact same odds available. These bets should just be seen as info and not as something to blindly follow. Record on them so far this season is 149 Bets | +17.22% ROI on Flat Unit bets (See Results) Bigger pre-game bets which are rare these days I also tend to take extra on those in BTC.
Season 2020-2021 BTC Bets
Date | Bet | mBTC | Odds | Result | Betslip |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01/11/2020 | Antwerp -0.5 | 10 | 3.50 | -10 | sportbet.one |
03/10/2020 | OHL vs Zulte 1H Under 1.25 | 10 | 2.010 | +5.005 | sportbet.one |
Bookies, Projects & Platforms I use...
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Month | Bets | Won | Lost | Push | Staked | Profit BTC | ROI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 2020 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0100 | +0.01271 | +127% |
Dec 2019 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0200 | -0.002000 | -100% |
Nov 2019 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0200 | -0.001800 | -9.00% |
Oct 2019 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.0400 | -0.020800 | -52.00% |
Sep 2019 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0400 | +0.028890 | +72.22% |
Aug 2019 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0.1000 | +0.033860 | +33.86% |
July 2019 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0200 | +0.018000 | +90.0% |
Jun 2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0000 | +0.000000 | +0.00% |
May 2019 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.0700 | -0.050000 | -71.43% |
Apr 2019 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.0500 | +0.024170 | +48.34% |
Mar 2019 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.0700 | +0.004120 | +5.89% |
Feb 2019 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.060 | +0.023210 | +23.21% |
Jan 2019 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.100 | -0.079640 | -79.64% |
Dec 2018 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0.150 | -0.058880 | -39.25% |
Nov 2018 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0.170 | -0.032170 | -18.92% |
Oct 2018 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0.150 | -0.028290 | -18.86% |
Sep 2018 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.140 | +0.141820 | +101,3% |
Aug 2018 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.080 | +0.045470 | +56.84% |
Jul 2018 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0.135 | +0.033590 | +24.88% |
Jun 2018 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0.150 | +0.018200 | +12.13% |
May 2018 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.020 | +0.023440 | +117% |
Feb 2018 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0.091 | -0.036293 | -39,88% |
Jan 2018 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0.147 | +0.005800 | +3.95% |
Dec 2017 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0.148 | +0.010422 | +7.04% |
Nov 2017 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0.210 | -0.008030 | -3.82% |
Oct 2017 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 0.210 | +0.003080 | +1.46% |
Sep 2017 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0.090 | +0.001440 | +1.60% |
Total | 266 | 124 | 126 | 16 | 2.491 | +0.092319 | +3.71% |
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