In Cincinnati Daniil Medvedev shocked the crowd by coming from a set down to Defeat reigning champion Novak Djokovic. It was in Cincinnati last year where Djokovic did what no player has ever done before in the history of tennis - win every single Masters 1000 event. The Serbian then went on to win the US Open destroying Del Potro in the final. This year it's been just as good as last for Djokovic, he won the Australian Open putting on perhaps his most dominant show ever vs Nadal in the final (3-0) before going on to capture the Wimbledon title having survived two match points in the final vs Federer.
But perhaps the tide could turn towards the end of the year starting with that defeat in the Semi Final's to Medvedev. The Russian turned the tables on the match by combining his usual measured defensive style by going all out and hitting some aggressive winners. Known as "the Bear" Medvedev is capable of hitting flat winners for fun, indeed before he starting to really make a name for himself a few years back he was actually playing more aggressive tennis, the sort we saw in Cincinnati in the Semi's. But somewhere along the line he switched tactics and started to hit with more control. That has proven fruitful both this year and last. Last year he captured 3 titles including his first ever 500 in Tokyo and this year he claimed his first ever Masters, won a 250 and got to the final of two 500 events and one more Masters.
He is certainly the inform player right now on tour behind the big 3 and at the young age of 23 he's a player the game needs to add more competition to the dominant class. While Medvedev may have been obliterated by Nadal in the previous Masters final in Canada, he is more than capable of adapting to different styles of play to overcome opponents including champions like Nadal so I would like to see a potential meeting between those two again at the US Open to see how quickly he can change tactic to give him a better game.
Medvedev who lost to Djokovic at the Australian Open this year in the round before the Quarters still has a question mark over his head regarding best of 5 set matches. Being 6ft 6inches tall he's a big guy that maybe able to shift around the court (he only weights 83kg!) but does he have the reserves to play 5 set matches and go all the way to the final?
Unfortunately for him the draw doesn't favour him kindly. He will have go through 6 different opponents if he wants to claim the title and his side of the draw includes both Djokovic and Federer. So it is very possible that he will have to defeat all three of the big players to win the title. The idea of that happening is too incomprehensible in the minds of most tennis fans. The bookies have him at 15.00 to win the title. For me those odds are too low considering the aforementioned fact.
If he goes deep, he will likely face Djokovic in the Quarter Final, Federer in the Semi Final and Nadal in the final. For me odds on just those three matches would equal possibly 50.00. Consider that head to head he's 0-3 against Federer and 0-1 against Nadal. Also vs Federer, the Swiss has his number. While his defensive controlled game worked vs Djokovic, Federer plays differently and I think the youngster hasn't refined his style enough to overcome the aggression of the Swiss in the forecourt.
For me the US Open isn't going to have any big surprises, it's one of the big 3's to loose. I'm going with Federer this year. I thought at Wimbledon he looked sharp and focused. Considering the courts were playing slower this year he did incredibly well vs Nadal and also vs Djokovic for long periods of that final. Here he can go one better. His odds aren't too shabby either, at 7.00 he's worth a shot.