Belgian League | Stats Analysis (How To Beat The Market!)

in LeoFinance2 months ago

While most Sports Bettors look at the widely available numbers and statistics for their betting, I make my own based on the actual Asian handicap line to help me identify which teams are actually undervalued or overvalued. I took some time to do an analysis with some insights into what I'm using to find an edge...

After the first 8 weeks in the league, these are the standings so far...

It's not because a team wins a lot of matches or scores a lot of goals that betting them or the over is also profitable. Everything pretty much stands or falls with the odds and handicap line that is offered by the Asian bookmakers. These so far have been the best (potentially most underrated) teams after 8 weeks in the league. (Numbers are based on the closing lines)

Most Underrated Teams

RankTeamROI
01Oostende+37.13%
02Charleroi+33.25%
03Cercle Brugge+30.13%
04Eupen+17.00%
05Club Brugge+9.50%
06Standard+7.44%
07OH Leuven+0.37%
08Antwerp+0.25%
09Beerschot+0.25%
10Kortrijk-10.00%
11Stvv-17.31%
12Moeskroen-19.88%
13Waasland-20.94%
14Anderlecht-23.88%
15Zulte-Waregem-25.50%
16Mechelen-27.63%
17AA Gent-38.05%
18Racing Genk-40.63%

So Oostende, Charleroi, and Cercle Brugge have been the most underrated teams so far on the market showing some great returns in case they blindly were bet at the closing line on all 8 of their matches so far. On the other hand, Racing Genk and AA Gent have been the most overrated teams. Of course, these are just numbers and there certainly is a lot of room for interpretation. This is pretty much where actually following a league comes in. It's also not because a team underperformed that they will continue to underperform. These numbers are certainly useful in going forward. I will be crunching some numbers the next days to compare these numbers with numbers from the next set of matches.

When looking at the team profits and the standings, you are able to make a killing if you can predict which of the non-top-teams will overperform (Oostende, Charleroi, Cercle Brugge, Eupen) and which of the Top Teams will underperform (AA Gent & Racing Genk). Most sports bettors stick to a pattern of trying to make a profit betting on the top teams to win which rarely works as they almost never get underrated.


Most Over Teams

RankTeamGoalsROI
01Waasland4.25+66.88%
02Beerschot4.13+59.25%
03Oostende2.5+19.38%
04Antwerp3.00+19.00%
05OH Leuven3.00+19.00%
06Zulte-Waregem4.00+16.38%
07Club Brugge3.25+14.69%
08Anderlecht3.38+13.00%
09Standard2.25+11.19%
10Kortrijk2.25+6.31%
11AA Gent2.88+5.00%
12Racing Genk3.13+3.56%
13Mechelen2.38-0.62%
14Eupen2.50-3.00%
15Cercle Brugge2.63-4.56%
16Stvv2.38-10.81%
17Charleroi2.13-37.25%
18Moeskroen1.88-50.00%

Some big gaps in the over/under valuations of the betting market with the League, in general, having way more goals than anticipated. Waalsland who are 2nd last in the standings leads the total goals standings as they both manage to score but also get a lot of goals against. the 2nd worst team in the League Standings on is at the bottom of the goals rankings as they play defensive but often lost by 1 goal. Charleroi also still delivers as a team where the odds have not fully been adjusted to their defensive play style.


Ratio 1H/2H Goals

RankTeam1st Half2nd Half
01Moeskroen27%73%
02Standard28%72%
03Anderlecht30%70%
04Eupen30%70%
05Racing Genk31%69%
06Zulte-Waregem32%68%
07Charleroi32%68%
08Waasland32%68%
09Kortrijk33%67%
10Oostende35%65%
11Mechelen35%65%
12Beerschot38%62%
13Cercle Brugge38%62%
14Club Brugge46%54%
15Antwerp46%54%
16OH Leuven46%54%
17Stvv53%47%
18AA Gent52%48%

There is a reason why 1H Under bets often have been my choice these last couple of years. Often times, teams start pretty defensive but are unable to keep it up or a match gets broken open with a goal. There are only a handful of teams that have an even ratio between 1H and 2H Goals. These numbers are certainly something I look at for both my pre-game and Live Betting.


There are plenty more of these numbers I look at to get a better view on what bets to invest my money in like differences between home/away numbers from teams which create a gap in the numbers lines are based on. Many of the numbers most handicappers look at are the same that are used to actually set the lines which makes it into somewhat of a paradox to use them to try and beat the market. Using regular statistics to understand why lines are set the way they are and other numbers (and general knowledge) to find gaps between them at least for me has helped me to beat these markets. I'm looking forward to Friday when the league gets underway again!



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